tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post4679534321125176236..comments2024-03-27T23:12:08.917-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Invite Them Home: Part IIIDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger70125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-23696267989621709322007-04-16T21:38:00.000-07:002007-04-16T21:38:00.000-07:00The thing that grabbed my attention was the remind...The thing that grabbed my attention was the reminder that 1.) cold is much worse than hot for agriculture, 2.) it's been atypically warm for the last ten thousand years or so and we don't know why. Pournelle's point is about risk management, and spending money on data collection is a better bet at this point than trying to "do something" before you actually know what the problem is. If you think the problem is fire, well, you have about a 50% chance of being right.<BR/><BR/>And for no particular reason except that it sounds nice and is appropos, a Robert Frost poem:<BR/><BR/>SOME say the world will end in fire, <BR/>Some say in ice. <BR/>From what I’ve tasted of desire <BR/>I hold with those who favor fire. <BR/>But if it had to perish twice, I think I know enough of hate <BR/>To know that for destruction ice <BR/>Is also great <BR/>And would suffice.<BR/><BR/>-MaxB.C.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04048881524085910509noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-2837038587613952612007-04-15T23:17:00.000-07:002007-04-15T23:17:00.000-07:00I presume Pournelle is referring to what might hap...I presume Pournelle is referring to what might happen if the gulfstream shuts down<BR/>...due to a 'pump' failure in the arctic<BR/>... due to a decrease in the amount of dense brine sinking and drawing warmer water north.<BR/>... due to a decrease in the amount of ice forming in winter months (which expels the salt)<BR/>... due to an increase in surface temperatures<BR/>... due to global warming<BR/><BR/>And, since a marked (30%?) decrease in the gulfstream flow has already been noted, glaciers may well figure in the future.<BR/><BR/>But, it still stems from an inconvenient truth, however imbecilic and corrupt.<BR/><BR/>Meanwhile, Wolfowitz does what all good nerocons do when the screws are being tightened (and continues to do a hell of a job), and <A HREF="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/6558569.stm" REL="nofollow">the brits are going to drop the term 'War on Terror'</A> because it has "<I>given strength to terrorists by making them feel part of something bigger.</I>"<BR/><BR/>Oh, and Cheney predicts that the senate will drop all silly demands for withdrawal deadlines from Iraq appropriation bills. Could Darth Sidious be girding his loins?Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-15324031818514530102007-04-15T15:11:00.000-07:002007-04-15T15:11:00.000-07:00Yeah, I'm shivering in my boots at the prospect of...Yeah, I'm shivering in my boots at the prospect of glaciers suddenly reversing their decades-long decline.<BR/><BR/>Thank goodness there are still people keeping their wits about them to counteract pantywaist fearmonger luddite liberals like Newt and these guys:<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18123962/" REL="nofollow">Report: Global warming may be security factor</A><BR/><I>Top ex-military leaders say more terrorism, conflicts over water may ensue</I><BR/><BR/>"WASHINGTON - Global warming poses a 'serious threat to America’s national security' with terrorism worsening and the U.S. will likely be dragged into fights over water and other shortages, top retired military leaders warn in a new report.<BR/><BR/>. . .<BR/><BR/>The report was issued by the Alexandria, Va.-based, national security think-tank The CNA Corporation and was written by six retired admirals and five retired generals. They warned of a future of rampant disease, water shortages and flooding that will make already dicey areas — such as the Middle East, Asia and Africa — even worse.<BR/><BR/>. . .<BR/><BR/>In a veiled reference to Bush’s refusal to join an international treaty to cut greenhouse gas emissions, the report said the U.S. government “must become a more constructive partner” with other nations to fight global warming and cope with its consequences."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-39912352244520379722007-04-13T16:04:00.000-07:002007-04-13T16:04:00.000-07:00Link got cut, here's a correction: http://tinyurl....Link got cut, here's a correction: http://tinyurl.com/3xcypbB.C.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04048881524085910509noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-16211196559017715902007-04-13T16:01:00.000-07:002007-04-13T16:01:00.000-07:00http://www.jerrypournelle.com/mail/mail461.html#Th...http://www.jerrypournelle.com/mail/mail461.html#Thursday<BR/><BR/>Jerry makes a rather terrifying point about ice ages.<BR/><BR/>-MaxB.C.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04048881524085910509noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-88344449580534319712007-04-13T14:19:00.000-07:002007-04-13T14:19:00.000-07:00So the trick is to encourage a system of public di...<I> So the trick is to encourage a system of public discourse that promotes good mental hygiene in its participants. Note that the self-selection occurring on the internet is not such a system, since it encourages participants to associate with people who think just like them. (See my rant higher up in this thread.) </I><BR/><BR/>Bingo. I don't know what to do about this, either, except that on a personal level that's why I drop by this blog frequently. Maybe all we can do is try to make people aware of the self-selection process and encourage them to fight it?<BR/><BR/>-MaxB.C.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04048881524085910509noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-72817397368893695682007-04-13T14:01:00.000-07:002007-04-13T14:01:00.000-07:00Looks to me like a clear case of criminal perjury ...Looks to me like a clear case of criminal perjury for Sampson. If Clinton had done this we would have screamed, and in fact we did...[1]<BR/><BR/>http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/13/america/justice.php<BR/><BR/>-Max Wilson<BR/><BR/>[1] The fact that legal technicalities prevented it from being perjury in Clinton's case is not germane. Legal technicalities may let Sampson off the hook, too, but who can condone lying under oath?B.C.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04048881524085910509noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-14411464271850011672007-04-13T08:55:00.000-07:002007-04-13T08:55:00.000-07:00Reason--Only if they can be convinced by objective...Reason--<BR/><BR/><I>Only if they can be convinced by objective argument, can that emotional argument be overcome. The problem is that there are far too many who are not amenable to objective reasoned argument.</I><BR/><BR/>So the trick is to encourage a system of public discourse that promotes good mental hygiene in its participants. Note that the self-selection occurring on the internet is <I>not</I> such a system, since it encourages participants to associate with people who think just like them. (See my rant higher up in this thread.)TheRadicalModeratehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04671143818738683349noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-82690301008236930572007-04-13T03:14:00.000-07:002007-04-13T03:14:00.000-07:00Max Wilson...I'd hate to generalize too much, but ...Max Wilson...<BR/><I>I'd hate to generalize too much, but it does seem that facts speak better to conservatives than emotion, even if the emotion has "Dig it!" forcefully attached.</I><BR/><BR/>Max surely that is true with anybody who disagrees with you. You are not going to reach them emotionally, because they are emotionally attached to their ideas. Only if they can be convinced by objective argument, can that emotional argument be overcome. The problem is that there are far too many who are not amenable to objective reasoned argument.reasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06594313655855683716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-19104975119563952082007-04-13T03:10:00.000-07:002007-04-13T03:10:00.000-07:00Max WilsonSome people are hysterical without knowi...Max Wilson<BR/><I>Some people are hysterical without knowing why, of course, but there's a legitimate issue here: the Earth is robust to natural climate changes.</I><BR/><BR/>Fine for the earth - not necessarily so good for humans. Part of the earths response could be to purge itself of greenhouse gas producers.reasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06594313655855683716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-30521729082337045892007-04-12T22:31:00.000-07:002007-04-12T22:31:00.000-07:00Lee Iacocca: "Where Have All the Leaders Gone?"<A HREF="http://depression2.tv/d2/node/261" REL="nofollow">Lee Iacocca: "Where Have All the Leaders Gone?"</A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-43369572183881233912007-04-12T20:58:00.000-07:002007-04-12T20:58:00.000-07:00Most of Vonnegut's books never appealed to me. But...Most of Vonnegut's books never appealed to me. But:<BR/><BR/>"What is the purpose of life? To be the eyes, the ears, and conscience of the Creator of the Universe you fool."<BR/><BR/>-Kurt Vonnegut<BR/><BR/>"The trick is to catch them at school -- before they become generals and senators and presidents -- and poison their minds with humanity."<BR/><BR/>Kurt Vonnegut, 1922 - 2007Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-74871835248684064132007-04-12T15:25:00.000-07:002007-04-12T15:25:00.000-07:00Totally of topic:There goes the sole peaceful (and...Totally of topic:<BR/><BR/>There goes the sole peaceful (and I am using that term very loosely) region of Iraq, <A HREF="http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=2&article_id=81393" REL="nofollow">Turkey's top general seeks approval to enter Iraq</A>.<BR/><BR/>And the bloodbath continues...<BR/><BR/>Good job George, and all the geniuses who voted for you.Don Quijotehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03355584994080980478noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-13104807379986300902007-04-12T00:08:00.000-07:002007-04-12T00:08:00.000-07:00I never did get into Vonnegut.Possibly prompted by...I never did get into Vonnegut.<BR/><BR/>Possibly prompted by Stefan's quote, a whimsical thought occurs to me: while we get to mourn the passing of someone great, we never get to celebrate their arrival in this world.<BR/><BR/>Maybe it's different for Tralfamadorians?Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-27568981072265590722007-04-11T21:21:00.000-07:002007-04-11T21:21:00.000-07:00“Hello, babies. Welcome to Earth. It’s hot in the ...“Hello, babies. Welcome to Earth. It’s hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It’s round and wet and crowded. At the outside, babies, you’ve got about a hundred years here. There’s only one rule that I know of, babies — ‘God damn it, you’ve got to be kind.’ ”<BR/><BR/>-- Kurt Vonnegut, 1922 - 2007Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-17176298168220851902007-04-11T14:35:00.000-07:002007-04-11T14:35:00.000-07:00Mark,I think we agree. My point is that Plato happ...Mark,<BR/><BR/>I think we agree. My point is that Plato happened to be wrong.<BR/><BR/>And that most useful philosophy should be formalized mathematically, and stuck into a science class!RandomSequencehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12259854206507818658noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-83102065542208652332007-04-11T10:34:00.000-07:002007-04-11T10:34:00.000-07:00Not sure why the links didn't post. Let's try aga...Not sure why the links didn't post. Let's try again:<BR/><A HREF="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18053715" REL="nofollow"/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.nationalpopularvote.com" REL="nofollow"/><BR/><BR/>http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18053715/<BR/>http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09899896624634559665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-5933556083369364782007-04-11T10:31:00.000-07:002007-04-11T10:31:00.000-07:00Off topic, but electoral college reform was a big ...Off topic, but electoral college reform was a big discussion earlier. In case people haven't seen the news, Maryland just took a big first step in getting rid of the Electoral College. Unfortunately, Arnold vetoed the same legislation in CA last year - which would have gone a long way in getting legislation in place in 264 EV states (when the effective repeal would then trigger).<BR/><BR/>Here's the story and the website pushing this legislation nationwide:<BR/><A HREF="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18053715" REL="nofollow"/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.nationalpopularvote.com" REL="nofollow"/>Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09899896624634559665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-13900031776819277462007-04-11T09:55:00.000-07:002007-04-11T09:55:00.000-07:00But when you use "verbal arguments," as in philoso...<I>But when you use "verbal arguments," as in philosophy...</I><BR/><BR/>I don't agree that philosophy is limited to "verbal arguments". The first thing they teach in philosophy is logic, which is basically boolean math. Remember, when Plato talked about philosophy, he was largely talking about mathematics. In his utopia (if I remember correctly) future leaders were supposed to spend 10 or 20 years studying math before ruling.<BR/><BR/>I don't mean to push this too far and I agree with the basics David, RS and others are saying, I just don't want people to start putting math into the category of science, it isn't. And it was the success of mathematics in Plato's time that lead him to believe philosophical thought could solve all the problems.Xactiphynhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08254344563346437079noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-86605693040393784042007-04-11T08:33:00.000-07:002007-04-11T08:33:00.000-07:00RM,One small quibble: On the other hand, there are...RM,<BR/><BR/>One small quibble: <EM>On the other hand, there are plenty of undecidable propositions in both math and science, stemming both from internal inconsistencies (gotta love our boy Kurt, now...) or from lack of empirical data.</EM><BR/><BR/>My understanding is that the undecidables in mathematics do not stem from internal inconsistency (which would just invalidate that mathematics), but from their power - a perfectly consistent and powerful mathematics (predicate calculus and up) will inherently have undecidable propositions. It comes from their recursive properties, and the fact that they contain infinities (any set which contains an infinity contains itself).<BR/><BR/>That's not a bad thing. The example of Euclid's parallel line axiom is a great example. You dump that axiom, and whether parallel lines diverge, converge or stay parallel becomes undecidable. Any which one you choose as your axiom creates a perfectly good geometry - Euclid is perfectly good locally, converging is perfectly good for a sphere like the surface of the earth, and diverging manifolds are nice for cosmology.RandomSequencehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12259854206507818658noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-5152213245732063862007-04-11T07:44:00.000-07:002007-04-11T07:44:00.000-07:00Stefan, you luddite. ;-)I was distracted for fully...Stefan, you luddite. ;-)<BR/><BR/>I was distracted for fully two hours by that GURPS speciesbuilding document and the nostalgia for Starfire and D&D and Star Fleet Battles and the 80's when I was young and had time for RPG's not sucked up by World of Warcraft or a neighborhood association in meltdown...<BR/><BR/>Anyway, thanks for the diversion!Rob Perkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15618647194288598056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-73262287911245385652007-04-10T21:37:00.000-07:002007-04-10T21:37:00.000-07:00Mark, I'm with RS on this one. (Indeed, in this t...Mark, I'm with RS on this one. (Indeed, in this thread, RS has mounted one of the cogent critiques on the limits of philosophy that I've ever come across.) I'll quibble a bit with the reference to "empirical data." Instead, how 'bout we deal with decidable vs. undecidable propositions?<BR/><BR/>There are lots of decidable propositions in math, based on either a small set of axioms or on a vast body of techniques derived from those axioms. Similarly, there are lots of more-or-less decidable propositions in science, based on empirical data or mathematical/logical derivations therefrom.<BR/><BR/>On the other hand, there are plenty of undecidable propositions in both math and science, stemming both from internal inconsistencies (gotta love our boy Kurt, now...) or from lack of empirical data. <BR/><BR/>Philosophy seems to be a useful tool for undecidable propositions stemming from lack of data. Thus we find a whole range of valid philosophical arguments in epistemology (see my semi-flippant comment way far above in this thread) and maybe in theology (to the extent that you'd like to distinguish it from epistemology). I'm confident that advances in cognitive science and, well, something else, will slowly dry up those remaining philosophical cesspools.<BR/><BR/>Beyond that, the history of philosophy seems to be one of some mighty fine guesses that, at their best, were instructive guides to further inquiry and, at worst, bear as much resemblance to reality as Genesis does to modern cosmology (i.e., one clearly has more to do with reality than the other, flawed though they both may be).TheRadicalModeratehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04671143818738683349noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-62503936077260373712007-04-10T17:39:00.000-07:002007-04-10T17:39:00.000-07:00Mark, I don't doubt that philosophy was a reasonab...Mark, <BR/><BR/>I don't doubt that philosophy was a reasonable mode for Plato, or even Hobbes or Locke. They set the stage for today's science and mathematics. And I even don't doubt that there are fields today where philosophy and religion can still play a role: namely, psychology which has as of yet not been placed on a firm scientific and mathematical footing.<BR/><BR/>But mathematics is essentially different from philosophy, at least since the 19th century. We have explicitly recognized that mathematics has no "content". It is a purely abstract process simply following rules of consistency. We know that there are an infinite set of mathematics that are self-consistent, and can even study the structure of self-consistent systems in the abstract.<BR/><BR/>But when you use "verbal arguments," as in philosophy, you can not guarantee yourself self-consistency. When you add the assumption that somehow self-consistency gives you some kind of mapping onto the real universe, you've entered the realm of madness (unless you happen to be Max Tegmark).<BR/><BR/>Facts + mathematics is the best we can do <EM>today</EM>. Philosophy fails on both counts. At its best, it still has a role at the most meta level, to bottom out the recursion, such as in history of science. But really, no role in politics once we've decided that freedom and equality are our goals.RandomSequencehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12259854206507818658noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-33562219408011412412007-04-10T15:05:00.000-07:002007-04-10T15:05:00.000-07:00RS said:Philosophy is the natural mode of "meta" d...RS said:<BR/><BR/><I>Philosophy is the natural mode of "meta" discussions. That makes it appropriate for very immature fields, such as psychology today, or 18th century political discourse. But as soon as we get the needed empirical base and relevant theoretical (mathematical) background, it needs to be discarded. Would any physicist today deign to be called a "natural philosopher"? Philosophy goes to incipient "verbal" science which is displaced by mathematical theory and data.</I><BR/><BR/>I understand what you mean, but you miss one very important point that is needed to really put Plato in the proper perspective. Mathematics <B>is</B> a form of philosophy. It isn't science as it has no dependency on empirical data at all.*<BR/><BR/>It was the great success of mathematics that seduced Plato in believing one could arrive at perfection through only philosophical thought. Math requires no connection to the real world to work, but it is highly useful in the real world. Why can't logic and pure thought solve every other problem?<BR/><BR/>Seems almost reasonable, doesn't it, particularly for his time. If a circle can be understood with pure thought, why not human nature?<BR/><BR/>And, in fact, you can use philosophy to solve most every problem -- sort of. You see, while physics, chemistry and so on are all sciences, Science itself is a philosophical idea. Practical, yes, but still philosophy, as it is all about the nature of truth and reality. The enlightenment was pushed largely by philosophers and even David's citokate is basically a philosophical approach.<BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/>*Don't believe me? Think about the four color problem. Scientifically it has been known for (hundreds?) of years that four colors were enough to fill any map without touching colors; despite many attempts to find such a map. Mathematics could care less, it needed a proof.Xactiphynhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08254344563346437079noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-61125721482351967812007-04-10T13:00:00.000-07:002007-04-10T13:00:00.000-07:00"1.) it lets you make rational tradeoffs to deal w..."1.) it lets you make rational tradeoffs to deal with emissions <B>instead of requiring everyone to become a Luddite</B>"<BR/><BR/>Thank you for confirming my initial impression.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.sjgames.com/gurps/Roleplayer/Roleplayer25/We-Who-Harvest-Souls/SoulHarvesters.html" REL="nofollow">Golly, I'm a luddite!</A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com