tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post4558444212378858029..comments2024-03-28T14:07:18.682-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Inventing Hari Seldon's psychohistory - and other science marvelsDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-11611416587606857282013-03-31T14:37:20.761-07:002013-03-31T14:37:20.761-07:00Contrary Bin,
There is a real life recapitulation...Contrary Bin,<br /><br />There is a real life recapitulation of Asimovian psychohistory underway now on Earth: by "Foundation Encyclopedia Dialectica [F.E.D.]".<br /><br />They have derived a set of seven 'Psychohistorical-Dialectical Equations", using the "contra-Boolean Algebra" that their founder discovered, and axiomatized. --<br /><br />http://www.dialectics.org/dialectics/Aoristoss_Blog/Entries/2012/5/19_The_F.E.D._Psychohistorical_Equations.html<br /><br />However, although it is clear that they support and intend the use of "Big Data", their initial version of "the psychohistorical equations" are rooted in a different approach than mere statistics and probability theory.<br /><br />Their initial equations are aimed at establishing a generalized, deterministic, necessary order-of-appearance, or order-of-progression, of "socio-ontology", an undergirding, causal "chain of socio-historical phenomena", around which "Big Data" can supply detailed, quantitative specifics.<br /><br />For more about this, see --<br /><br />http://www.dialectics.org/dialectics/Welcome.html<br /><br /><br />Regards,<br /><br />M.D.<br />Miguelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15248430239985941363noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-29854356684271914992013-01-25T03:35:21.163-08:002013-01-25T03:35:21.163-08:00This is the second time I have read that there was...This is the second time I have read that there was no "next big thing" in the first decade of this century. Does the wide spread availability of handheld, multitouch computers like tablets and smartphones not rank as big enough?<br /><br />I realize that it's not rocket science...flahutehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13995311493065512078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-65895415322203637772013-01-21T01:39:04.121-08:002013-01-21T01:39:04.121-08:00link to odds must be crazy should be:
http://www.t...link to odds must be crazy should be:<br />http://www.theoddsmustbecrazy.com/<br />instead of <br />http://www.blogger.com/www.theoddsmustbecrazy.com/Georgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10337301744138774060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-79589872461898641922013-01-18T19:25:54.959-08:002013-01-18T19:25:54.959-08:00'Negative' temperatures are an outcome of ...'Negative' temperatures are an outcome of the math used in statistical mechanics of paramagnetic materials and was being covered in undergraduate physics courses 35 years ago. They're considered < 0 due to lowered entropy, and hotter than infinity due to the inverted energy state occupancies<br /><br />Here's <a href="http://www.gunnerkrigg.com/?p=63" rel="nofollow">a more humorous way to envision 'micromorts'</a>, Gunnerkrigg style (no-one's yet owned up to Paz for that stunt!) <br />Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-77556319588003333772013-01-18T17:26:21.969-08:002013-01-18T17:26:21.969-08:00The link to "The Odds Must Be Crazy" see...The link to "The Odds Must Be Crazy" seems to be broken.<br /><br />What are the chances, eh?Jonathan S.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-79997039096059995002013-01-18T13:40:01.719-08:002013-01-18T13:40:01.719-08:00hm... I've recently had a short story publishe...hm... I've recently had a short story published about predicting the weather, which is but a subset of predicting the future. It brought out the interesting poitn that different nations would prefer different futures and that there will consequently be skirmishes over small controllable events to make sure the a country gets what it wants... is this going to be the war-ground of the future?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-72453070650180614902013-01-18T13:32:27.291-08:002013-01-18T13:32:27.291-08:00The O'Neal email showed poor judgement, though...The O'Neal email showed poor judgement, though accusing him of desiring harm to come to Obama and his family seems nearly as overblown and childish as O'Neal's attitude toward Obama. <br /><br />The most reasonable interpretation is that O'Neal saw sly humor in an apparent pro-Obama prayer request that actually expressed distaste for Obama, and lacked the judgement to simply giggle a bit and hit delete. <br /><br />It's hardly to his credit, if he thought it just meant "I can't wait for Obama's term to be over" and didn't know or check the context of the following verses.<br /><br />The Secret Service, professionals charged with investigating even semi-credible threats to the President, appear to have recognized his idiocy and ignored him. <br /><br />So should we, EXCEPT for the people of Kansas, who should make O'Neal's embarrasing days in office short by recalling him.<br /><br />To encourage that, we need a new bumper-sticker:<br />"Speaker O'Neal: Proverbs 18:6-7"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-28122161610730892682013-01-18T08:30:51.632-08:002013-01-18T08:30:51.632-08:00> Gas-flaring ... how much
Helium.> Gas-flaring ... how much <br /><br />Helium.Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-31710723314375406272013-01-18T08:27:34.631-08:002013-01-18T08:27:34.631-08:00I'm guessing Google is trying to find what Avr...I'm guessing Google is trying to find what Avram Davidson called "The Sources of the Nile" now.<br /><br />Track enough people asking related questions, assemble the pattern, figure out where those people are headed before any of the individuals involved do. <br /><br />Then snap up their IP, hire the individuals, and claim to have created the idea that's the result of their questions.Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-5031567289969327282013-01-17T21:25:45.376-08:002013-01-17T21:25:45.376-08:00Nate Slver reminds me less of Asimov's foundat...Nate Slver reminds me less of Asimov's foundation series than of his short story "Franchise".<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franchise_%28short_story%29Ianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01739671401151990700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-28827325806044723392013-01-17T20:36:24.354-08:002013-01-17T20:36:24.354-08:00Worldwide Aeros mile high club = Worldwide ErosWorldwide Aeros mile high club = Worldwide Erosshagggzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12889541177876400761noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-19814694791478686182013-01-17T19:23:12.991-08:002013-01-17T19:23:12.991-08:00Oy, what a monster... among many such. Show me th...Oy, what a monster... among many such. Show me the liberal equivalents.<br /><br />http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2012/01/13/403911/kansas-gop-house-speaker-prays-that-obamas-children-be-fatherless-and-his-wife-a-widow/?mobile=nc<br /><br />There may be some -- but as innumerable as locusts! In state legislatures across america?David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-59168671090002897412013-01-17T18:25:57.218-08:002013-01-17T18:25:57.218-08:00"colloidal particles of higher topological &#..."colloidal particles of higher topological 'genus' or g value—from doughnut-shaped g = 1 through 'pair of glasses' g = 2 to g = 5—have been synthesized and studied. When introduced into a nematic liquid crystal, these colloidal particles align and generate three-dimensional director fields and defects in the liquid crystal fluid that can be manipulated with a variety of methods and their charge characteristics studied. "<br /><br />Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-16410125873154705642013-01-17T18:22:25.754-08:002013-01-17T18:22:25.754-08:00Here's the core link to the topological colloi...Here's the core link to the topological colloids research.<br />http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v493/n7431/full/nature11710.html<br /><br />I think this might relate to some of the elementary fiddling around I've done with cellular automata on asymmetric but regular grids. At least is a good point for people griping about funding "pure math."Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-33343510689751206342013-01-17T18:07:12.535-08:002013-01-17T18:07:12.535-08:00Re predictions, I see two distinct strategies. In ...Re predictions, I see two distinct strategies. In one, the predictions are held close to the vest. Insider trading; stock strategies in general, in particular genetic algorithms, won't work if everybody and her sister also know. And if we find out we can predict a crime do we publicize it and thus prevent it, or keep our knowledge secret to catch perps?<br /><br />The point is there is a recursive element, often referred to as a self-avoiding prophecy. So I am unsure if "prediction" is exactly the right concept. In short, the use of analysis to predict only works in secret; if the wide world web watched publicly as the databases were scoured, no predictions would be reliable.Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-29854053554671336042013-01-17T17:57:46.928-08:002013-01-17T17:57:46.928-08:00Nate Silver =?= present-day Hari Seldon
The best ...<i><br />Nate Silver =?= present-day Hari Seldon<br /><br />The best predictors will not only make their methods public, but scrutiny will make them better still.<br /></i><br /><br />And on the other side, it was heartening to see Karl Rove get called out by (of all things) his own FOX News people. "Is that real math, or math that you do as Republicans to make yourselves feel better?" That was a long time in coming.LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-73391339966696000712013-01-17T17:54:02.641-08:002013-01-17T17:54:02.641-08:00locumranch, just so you know, I've continued ...locumranch, just so you know, I've continued to respond to the gold-standard argument in the previous post, and am willing to continue doing so as long as you are.LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-69734102956658141922013-01-17T17:09:09.491-08:002013-01-17T17:09:09.491-08:00Gas-flaring looks spectacularly but how much gas d...Gas-flaring looks spectacularly but how much gas does it actually consume?Ianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01739671401151990700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-71838558693154399812013-01-17T16:45:41.503-08:002013-01-17T16:45:41.503-08:00It's too bad the petroleum industry can't ...It's too bad the petroleum industry can't take a lesson from the meatpacking industry: everything but the squeal. Probably it's not sufficiently cost effective to capture the gas from oil drilling and sell it, sadly.<br /><br />TheMadLibrarian<br />hlkagr: remnants from a fracking processTheMadLibrariannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-35827971633371623332013-01-17T16:41:52.445-08:002013-01-17T16:41:52.445-08:00I find the giant squid way less creepy than the ro...I find the giant squid way less creepy than the robot toddler.<br /><br />Re: Robot's on the moon.<br />It has been a long time between drinks. And it would be nice if someone would finally put a lander/rover on the poles to look at the supposed ice. Someone might want to use it one day, it would be handy to know what its properties are. (Is it ice-coated dust, or mixed dust grains and ice crystals, or a layer of frost, or a nice thick layer of solid ice? Each would require a different collection and extraction method.) And given that the moon is within direct teleoperation range, and biocontamination is not an issue, it's mad that we don't buy a bunch of cheap disposable missions (in the style of COTS). Frankly anything but another Mars mission.<br /><br />Re: Bridges.<br />I've been hoping the design of London's Millennial Footbridge would lead to new designs for major bridges that skipped the high towers and used clever lateral cabling <i>under</i> the decks instead. Maybe the wobble put designers off. (And I loved the Falkirk Wheel.)Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-30690530956759764692013-01-17T15:11:01.389-08:002013-01-17T15:11:01.389-08:00If we had efficient large -scale energy storage co...If we had efficient large -scale energy storage couldn't the gas flaring actually be put to good use?Ianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01739671401151990700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-89089725075368116212013-01-17T15:10:39.935-08:002013-01-17T15:10:39.935-08:00Hi David,
Specific to econ development - or as we...Hi David,<br /><br />Specific to econ development - or as we call it, 'evidence based entrepreneurship' - we're building out a 'business development graph' that will also function as a best practices aggregation engine. <br /><br />Ping me for details if you're interested, as I'd love to have your insight on what we're doing. <br /><br />Cheers,<br />Kevin Johansen, CEO <br />https://businesscatapult.com/<br />Kevin@BusinessCatapult.com Kevin Johansenhttps://businesscatapult.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-14347438904282410432013-01-17T13:59:17.509-08:002013-01-17T13:59:17.509-08:00Krugman has a fair record and he (as well as other...Krugman has a fair record and he (as well as other economists) specifically credited Asimov's psycho-history for leading to economics as a career choice.Janus Danielshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15253124365227852722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-55430457366819425822013-01-17T13:10:49.606-08:002013-01-17T13:10:49.606-08:00micromort - sounds so much more scientific than th...micromort - sounds so much more scientific than the old "lightning strike" unit.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-7996954619271032382013-01-17T12:27:07.279-08:002013-01-17T12:27:07.279-08:00Is the problem that liars get to propagate so much...Is the problem that liars get to propagate so much bad information?<br /><br />Come off it! We are supposed to believe that economists don't have a clue about planned obsolescence 43 years after the Moon landing? So how do you predict things when large percentages of the population are either ignorant or believe lies?<br /><br />Blow away the lies and see if future history does not become something different.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com