tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post4295528200496236239..comments2024-03-29T00:39:31.629-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Enemies of Democracy... and (worse) traitors to democracy.David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger128125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-9454704193526751282021-08-07T13:10:51.292-07:002021-08-07T13:10:51.292-07:00If I recall my reading correctly, a lot of the au/...If I recall my reading correctly, a lot of the au/ag looted from the Americas went directly from the Spanish galleon fleets into German banking vaults to cover the huge loans the Spanish crown repeatedly took out to cover the Armada and other Imperial endeavors, pausing only briefly in the Spanish exchequer (Wiki says that Spain owed 20 million ducats from the war with England alone). Enough stuck around to cause inflation in Spain rather than increasing its economy. (Spain's wars also left a social component of disbanded/deserted soldiers, called picaros [literally pikemen] who preferred to live by the rules of their trade - looting and moving on - rather than return to civilian life, a lot like ex-Confederate raiders post US Civil War - only imagine men who had literally been born and grown up during the war(s), and who knew no other trade. Grimmelhausen's Simplicius Simplicissimus is a period novel describing such a life, set in the Germanies. The word picaresque came into English from this lifestyle.)<br /><br />I had a Dutch friend who loaned me a book about Holland's startling rise to superpowerdom, and the catastrophic decline of the Republic was described too. While I concede that the origins of Dutch success are hard to parse, one word can explain the failure - Hubris. Pappenheimernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-3402313237502176022021-08-07T12:26:03.585-07:002021-08-07T12:26:03.585-07:00Vitamins! Locum does this now and then. Contribute...Vitamins! Locum does this now and then. Contributes something to a discussion. This time an assertion that contains some true aspects... while ignoring the fact that stimulus to the working class results in demand for efficient production of actual things, plus generation of creative entrepreneurial startups, while all of those Supply Side carotid-sucks by his masters truly did accomplish nothing of value.<br /><br />But then he finishes up with another dyspeptic snarl of futility. So those were short-acting vitamins.<br /><br />whatever.... zzzzzzzz<br /><br />onward<br /><br />onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-39484654364947162772021-08-07T12:02:14.261-07:002021-08-07T12:02:14.261-07:00The gold and silver mines of Spanish America did n...<br /><i>The gold and silver mines of Spanish America did not benefit Spain much because</i> monies are NOT real 'wealth' per se, but rather false symbolic representations of wealth, much in the same way the trillions & trillions of magically-generated COVID stimulus dollars do not actually create an increased supply of real milk, eggs, healthcare or affordable housing.<br /><br />In fact, any sudden and/or arbitrary increase in monetary supply tends to generate a scarcity of wealth -- through the supply & demand process of inflation -- and this non-magical turn_of_events remains as true today in the USA, EU, Saudi Arabia & PRC as it did in Imperial Spain when it became flush with looted gold but possessed little actual material wealth.<br /><br />Indeed, it is a sad state of affairs when the acknowledgement of said fact becomes an unwelcome & anti-social act, so I withdraw yet again.<br /><br />You have my best wishes because wishes is all you will soon have.<br /><br /><br />Bestlocumranchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06812045410916208141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-38056297725772369162021-08-07T04:59:17.381-07:002021-08-07T04:59:17.381-07:00Chinese export dominance in 2019 looks a lot like ...<i>Chinese export dominance in 2019 looks a lot like US export dominance almost 50 years earlier.</i><br /><br />You should properly include internal economic activity to get an idea of economic strength as well. America spent many years building its economy (behind trade barriers) before exports started booming. Likewise Britain (going a lot further back). One motivation for the EU was creating a large internal economy to balance America.<br /><br />Significant exports without a lot of domestic strength makes you an economic colony, vulnerable to decisions taken elsewhere. (Canadian here, speaking from experience.)<br /><br />China's internal economy is large enough that it doesn't need exports anymore. <br /><br />Robertnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-37642353869090305942021-08-06T22:15:46.077-07:002021-08-06T22:15:46.077-07:00Alfred you leave out the flow of gold to Dutch ART...Alfred you leave out the flow of gold to Dutch ARTISANS, who supplied most of the art and luxuries bought by Spanish courts.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-27772137408262536112021-08-06T22:15:09.813-07:002021-08-06T22:15:09.813-07:00I tend to see the world in terms of per capita imp...I tend to see the world in terms of per capita impact. That would be something like a 'Foundation Index', made up of exports, education, and democracy. Germany and Canada would probably dominate that list for most of the 21st century.scidatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04992209167553267488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-17316413234480243862021-08-06T21:51:59.666-07:002021-08-06T21:51:59.666-07:00If we had a way to track it I'd bet serious mo...If we had a way to track it I'd bet serious money a lot of the gold and silver sent to Spain on the treasure fleets wound up fueling corruption. So it wasn't just that they weren't investing, they were wasting it. Not spending it on productive uses? Yah. Quite the opposite. Kinda goes with the times, though, so that's not saying much. Aristocrats do what aristocrats do.<br /><br />The fraction of it captured by the Dutch combined with the income derived from Dutch colonies isn't enough to explain what the Dutch did, though. Wisely investing (thrift + prudence) that combination still isn't enough. Real incomes for average dutchmen increase between 2-3x over the period. Incoming wealth DOES explain why certain dutchmen grew rich, but not the general population. Even if a 17th century version of trickle-down worked (as likely as getting struck by lightning while hiding underground), it's not enough. Money was flowing every which way and they unintentionally documented the fact of it in their writing and possessions many of which survive today.<br /><br />McCloskey spent an entire book addressing each of the ideas people offer as explanations. Investment? Colonial theft? Thrift? Industry? Etc. Contributions from these options aren't zero or trivially small, but they aren't gigantic enough to explain what happened. Imagine encountering someone loading a musket, not seeing the first few steps, and the trying to explain why the bullet comes out of the muzzle so fast. Must be all the energy packed into the wadding when the bullet is rammed home, right? What else could it be? We didn't see anything else happen! "Bougeois Dignity" after the first hundred pages (which are mostly set-up) attempts to demolish every other explanation. Roughly 300 pages of that. 8)<br /><br />What the Dutch actually did that survives counter-arguments gets discussed in "Bougeois Equality"… after another hundred pages of set up… and it goes on almost 500 pages. Heh. IF you can slog through it, though, it makes an Enlightenment fan proud to include the Dutch from this era. Though they were strongly inclined to be mercantilists, they improved their lot anyway… while at war with Spain… as a republic… in the middle of nations/crowns that despised republics… and made the English envious enough to copy (with errors) the whole system. It's the English errors that eventually broke the mercantilist approach and left us with what we have today.<br /><br />The first book in the series addresses the old theory for ethics that modern readers often don't know. Virtue Ethics. McCloskey wanted to point out that it is still in use no matter where philosophy professors went in their research. Commoners used it whether we knew the terms or not. With it we have a way to make sense of economic behaviors engaged in by the common man. Details form the first book (another 500 pages!) get re-used in the third.<br /><br /><br /><br />So… history is no longer a dry subject for me. Took me decades to understand that, but understanding what might happen in the future benefits from understanding what happened in the past. Sounds trite? Trivial? Yah. Still took a while to grok.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-30344656915815876102021-08-06T20:25:09.483-07:002021-08-06T20:25:09.483-07:00I just saw this video of bar graphs showing the 13...I just saw this video of bar graphs showing the 13 largest exporting nations in the world, in billions of dollars, from 1970 to 2019. In 1970 the US is by far the number one exporter at almost $60 billion, with Germany at second place with $34 billion. Most of the list is Europe or North America. China is not on the list. Hong Kong appears at the bottom of the list in 1984 (still free under British control). Hong Kong spends the next decade working its way toward the mid-list and Communist China makes its debut in 1995.<br /><br />At this point China begins its march to the top of the chart, and remember that Hong Kong, still on the list, really ought to be added to China's total after 1999. All the exporters above China start to stagnate and shrink, it's obvious where their vitality is being drained to. In 2009 China dethrones Germany from its long-held No. 2 slot and if we add Hong Kong, China's true total passes the US about this time also. But China takes the top spot in 2012 and the Trump years see the US position collapse like a sand castle. By 2019 we are barely ahead of Germany. Adding in Hong Kong puts China's true total at nearly TWICE the US exports for 2019, or about equal to the US and Germany combined. Chinese export dominance in 2019 looks a lot like US export dominance almost 50 years earlier.<br /><br />https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/oz70a4/the_worlds_largest_exporters/TCBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08153506222271955110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-59085008236560957192021-08-06T12:08:10.982-07:002021-08-06T12:08:10.982-07:00The gold and silver mines of Spanish America did n...The gold and silver mines of Spanish America did not benefit Spain much because it was not spent on capitalizing new productive capacity (factories, infrastructure, an educated populace) either in Spain or its colonies. Rather, it was spent on fripperies like art, palaces and arms for rampaging armies. Who wound up getting the gold and spending it on working capital? Artisans in Holland and their neighbors wh sold stuff to Spain...<br /><br />...exactly as China is doing with us.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-68576166644518178172021-08-06T11:28:06.971-07:002021-08-06T11:28:06.971-07:00I don't know how many of you are familiar with...I don't know how many of you are familiar with the comic <i>Watchmen</i> and the surprisingly good 2019 tv miniseries which serves as a sequel.<br /><br />Knowing that the miniseries aired in 2019--i.e., before COVID--it's eerily weird to see the right-wing senator defend his policy of hiding the identities of police officers by insisting, "Masks save lives."<br /><br /><i>How much longer can I go on being an atheist?</i>Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-39831519830827984142021-08-06T10:00:51.694-07:002021-08-06T10:00:51.694-07:00Pappenheimer,
…is the increased capital…
Yah, ev...Pappenheimer,<br /><br /><i>…is the increased capital…</i><br /><br />Yah, even though wars tend to chew up capital. I think that is THE most interesting thing about the period. Where was the excess income coming from? How is it that the Spanish Crown could keep borrowing ANYTHING?<br /><br />The short-sighted answer is that Spain was pulling wealth out of Central and South America. However, I don't think the treasure fleet is enough to explain how the Dutch were wading in the stuff too. Spain was getting access to local money too, but the Dutch had to be generating most of their income (colonies did NOT supply enough) in such excess that they could build ships, guns, etc. How? Why? That's where McCloskey thinks she has an answer big enough to supply the numbers. That matters to us today because THAT'S what the English really copied after 1689. Stealing the Dutch empire was a relative pittance compared to what they copied.<br /><br />I have to wonder if Flanders couldn't have participated in this too if Antwerp hadn't been sacked a bit earlier. Reserve banks appear to be important and that's one of the 1632-niverse stories I think Flint and friends got right for Amsterdam.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-23895814238054044382021-08-06T09:43:05.803-07:002021-08-06T09:43:05.803-07:00TCB,
…the most stunning part of the whole book wa...TCB,<br /><br /><i>…the most stunning part of the whole book was the story in Contracrostipunctus about the record that broke record players…</i><br /><br />Yah. I didn't see the connection with the immune system when I first read that part, but I was just a college student. We think we are immortal at that age. 8)<br /><br />My take away in later years was that formal systems are wonderfully useful… when they are useful. Otherwise they are fragile. We 'create them like tools' instead of 'create them like children.'<br /><br /><br />Paradoctor,<br /><br /><i>I think that the way forward is to allow paradox into our systems.</i><br /><br />I don't see it as 'paradox' as such. It's more like 'constraint'. Number Theory is very useful, but can't make a ham sandwich. Oh well. Formal systems can't do everything we thought they could back in the day. <br /><br />Also, since we CAN make a ham sandwich, we aren't a formal system? Maybe? Heh. Kinda hard for us to know about our own constraints. Number Theory can't express its own provably, so our conjectures about ourselves may remain just that.<br /><br />What I fully accept as implied by Hofstadter's work is we best remain fairly humble about ourselves, what we are, and what we can do. Universal statements about us should get the 'raised eyebrow' expression. While we ARE pretty amazing, time proves things about us better than we do.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-70925978082369400712021-08-06T08:51:37.424-07:002021-08-06T08:51:37.424-07:00Stonekettle on Twitter. The top comment is the fu...Stonekettle on Twitter. The top comment is the funny part:<br /><i><br />This tweet may be the single most perfectly written short story ever penned.<br /><br />Trump supporter enraged by Biden's victory attacked elderly couple with golf club — and now he can't vote again <br />https://rawstory.com/mark-ulsaker-barred-from-voting/<br /></i>Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-3123479747319927612021-08-06T07:50:06.125-07:002021-08-06T07:50:06.125-07:00John Fugelsang on Stephanie Miller's show, dis...John Fugelsang on Stephanie Miller's show, discussing Republican inconsistency: <br /><i><br />"We have to anticipate mutations in Republican talking points just like mutations in COVID. Both will kill us."<br /></i>Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-89548276485312816122021-08-06T07:33:49.731-07:002021-08-06T07:33:49.731-07:00A while back, I heard a radio news story concernin...A while back, I heard a radio news story concerning one of the billionaires in the Trump/Putin orbit. The story mentioned that the man in question was an aluminum magnate.<br /><br />My immediate thought was that I didn't know such an object was possible.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-46204502580652010112021-08-06T05:00:57.699-07:002021-08-06T05:00:57.699-07:00Pappenheimer:
If a felon commits a felony and a b...Pappenheimer:<br /><i><br />If a felon commits a felony and a burglar commits burglary, then committing irony makes you an....<br /></i><br /><br />An Iron Man?<br /><br />Or perhaps a Fe male.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-83752629701602905232021-08-05T20:35:59.917-07:002021-08-05T20:35:59.917-07:00Scidata... some of us do/Scidata... some of us do/David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-27220718626013052202021-08-05T19:48:54.826-07:002021-08-05T19:48:54.826-07:00I like Americans because they have an easy, whimsi...I like Americans because they have an easy, whimsical, ironic nature.<br />The best examples come from the movies, perhaps someone like Ferrous Bueller.<br /> scidatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07152319593457629592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-63470793117099908502021-08-05T16:52:00.764-07:002021-08-05T16:52:00.764-07:00Ahcuah:
Mars' molten but non-magnetic core?
...Ahcuah:<br /><i><br />Mars' molten but non-magnetic core?<br /><br />"And isn't it ironic?"<br /></i><br /><br />No, if it was ironic, it <b>would</b> be magnetic. :)<br />Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-31735013589385128102021-08-05T16:26:40.835-07:002021-08-05T16:26:40.835-07:00If a felon commits a felony and a burglar commits ...If a felon commits a felony and a burglar commits burglary, then committing irony makes you an....<br /><br />To misquote Spider Robinson, God is an Iron and we are a pair of pants with a hole burned in the ass.Pappenheimernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-32016556504083065772021-08-05T16:14:41.773-07:002021-08-05T16:14:41.773-07:00"In EXISTENCE a brief scene that no one ever ...<i>"In EXISTENCE a brief scene that no one ever commented on... that one of the virtual aliens comes up with a better and convincing definition for the human word 'irony.'"</i><br /><br />Mars' molten but non-magnetic core?<br /><br />"And isn't it ironic?"Ahcuahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06514651362748555460noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-10408616897293025962021-08-05T04:02:51.464-07:002021-08-05T04:02:51.464-07:00Re: US-CERT
In Australia, the closest we have wou...Re: US-CERT<br /><br />In Australia, the closest we have would be the SES. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Emergency_Service" rel="nofollow">State Emergency Services</a>.<br /><br />They're almost entirely voluntary, but they are an ongoing commitment rather than a "once per decade" thing. They handle the proverbial cat-in-a-tree things instead of the fire service. The idea is that doing small jobs (tree smashes your roof in a storm, missing toddler in woodland, car in a creek, etc) keeps their training up-to-date in preparation for major natural and man-made disasters.<br /><br />I've wondered if it would help the SES recruit volunteers if they had something like CERT as a gateway drug.Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-2802722128576961182021-08-04T21:06:31.933-07:002021-08-04T21:06:31.933-07:00Brin:
What was the virtual alien's definition ...Brin:<br />What was the virtual alien's definition of irony?<br /><br />Carumba! One of our tricks in SciFi is IMPLYING or referring to something outside our ability to describe, and thus giving a creepy sense of alien. Hey, it worked (just now) on YOU! ;-)David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-18186621375193246382021-08-04T19:29:49.241-07:002021-08-04T19:29:49.241-07:00scidata:
Is there intelligent life in the Univers...scidata: <br />Is there intelligent life in the Universe, including planet Earth? Inspection of Earth's radio output confirms that there is life there, and it can manipulate electromagnetism; but as for <i>intelligent</i> life, that radio output gives strong evidence both for and against. In any case, we are not qualified to judge our own intelligence, for Godelian reasons. Therefore I conclude that the only <i>intelligent</i> answer to the question:<br />"Is there intelligent life on Earth?"<br />is<br />"I don't know."<br /><br />Brin:<br />What was the virtual alien's definition of irony?<br />Paradoctorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04821968120388981470noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-21461645954117316842021-08-04T18:28:07.582-07:002021-08-04T18:28:07.582-07:00Our state does not allow employees time off or pay...Our state does not allow employees time off or pay for training programs such as CERT or CPR; if we want them, we are expected to foot the bill ourselves. Doesn't inspire much interest when, in turn, we are volunteered in emergencies. Sigh.TheMadLibrarianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09103164355746196049noreply@blogger.com