tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post3144046818757572313..comments2024-03-28T20:50:49.311-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Wonders from space... and beyondDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger136125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-74577539864549618972019-03-27T15:13:19.591-07:002019-03-27T15:13:19.591-07:00
Everyone, the whole question about space colonisa...<br />Everyone, the whole question about space colonisation is a moot point since for all practical reasons it is impossible.<br />For a start the amount of energy needed to fly someone to mars or the moon, make an adequate habitat(s) large enough and in the case of mars terraform it is so colossal that it should be obvious that it is a no go. (Don’t try and B.S. your self that fusion is the answer, the experimental ones are already so expensive that even if a working reactor was made it would be to expensive to mass produce, let alone take into space.)J.L.Mc12noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-46687365820723783072019-03-27T15:04:01.861-07:002019-03-27T15:04:01.861-07:00onward
onwardonward<br /><br />onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-19101099715123039692019-03-27T14:47:34.543-07:002019-03-27T14:47:34.543-07:00Progressbot,
Cities are grown, so your tree analo...Progressbot,<br /><br />Cities are grown, so your tree analogy is close. The seed, though, is generally a few people with stuff to trade. Where they trade is where the city grows. If the trades are fruitful, other people go there because it is easier to find risk capital and people to trade where they already are. Take a look at a US map and plot where our cities with more than one million people are. You’ll find there is a pattern if you squint at the map. They are generally along old trade routes where capital accumulated. The people with that capital built stuff to help themselves and others followed.<br /><br />So… Imagine a Moon colony or a Mars colony. Why would it exist where it gets planted? We don’t trade goods and services out there yet, so why would anyone with spare capital go to these places and plant a seed? I argue they won’t unless government does it. Wasn’t that tried by Soviet planners and the Romanov’s before them? We DO have examples of this kind of attempt on Earth, so we should be able to look at the history and ask how well this approach works. From that we should be able to make some projections about such attempts on the Moon or Mars. I’ve tried this thought experiment and the future it creates isn’t viable without HUGE expenditures.<br /><br />So… Imagine the asteroid boys out there trying to get filthy rich instead of a colony. Maybe they do it all robotically. Seems like the most likely way they would. When they bring that stuff back to Earth for sale, are there any waypoints on the path were they could make an early sale? Water in space can be used for a number of things. Why bring it all the way back? Makes sense to sell it to people up there who want it for fuel or just it’s component parts. Where will those waypoints happen? Will capital accumulate there? Won’t traders be drawn to those accumulation points?<br /><br />Yana would advocate for a planned solution to save humanity from itself, but probably not one with Stalin-style overtones involving starvations and gulags. That’s why I don’t react too strongly. It’s one of those ‘good intentions’ plans that I know won’t work, but there is little immediate danger to me or my family. Yana is simply mistaken and not immoral.<br /><br />Cities form around markets like chickens form around yolks. Anyone who wants an actual, viable space colony needs to consider this piece of human economic history.<br /><br />So… how does your whizbang help facilitate trade out there? That is an important question to ponder.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-37242554154315514652019-03-27T14:27:23.147-07:002019-03-27T14:27:23.147-07:00treebeard you are -- what? -- a more grownup versi...treebeard you are -- what? -- a more grownup version? A replacement? You made a strong point forcefully and well. Huh?<br /><br />You and jim make a hostile argument that certainly must be made... that guys like me should be challenged about whether we do more good than harm. Problem is:<br /><br />1. That's my tune you are whistling. You are on CONTRARY BRIN and questioning assumptions has been my bag longer than you've lived.<br /><br />2. One man -- the Nobel winning inventor of the white light LED -- did more good for the world than all you smug Thoreau-wannabe woods-walkers. I've been supporting Greenpeace and the Sierra Club in their ongoing (and productive) efforts since 1969. EARTH converted many people I once did a back of the envelope calc of footprints vs effects and sorry guys, it was orders of magnitude against your sour grapes slur.<br /><br />But still. It's no lie that guys like me should be put on hypocrisy alert, from time to time. You had a better day, today.<br /><br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-56687184003958786642019-03-27T14:08:10.930-07:002019-03-27T14:08:10.930-07:00Yana,
You can not avoid the basic economic argum...Yana,<br /><br /><i> You can not avoid the basic economic arguments for sustainable energy, notwithstanding the sycophantic whitewash "party line" from the latest Davos: just wait for it, you feeble proles, and we the powers will bring you renewables </i><br /><br />Pushing out the space frontier doesn’t have much to do with renewables. It does have to do with some rich people risking money, but not the kind of rich people who tend to stay in the relatively low risk bond markets. Those are the people who might sound like deficit hawks in public, but they buy the bonds when our governments borrow and benefit.<br /><br /><i> The line between public works and private works is we, the people, making things in our best interest. </i><br /><br />Hmm… There is another view of this too. That line is where ‘We the People’ decide to stop taking other people’s money to do what we think best. What I’m pointing out to you is there are already rich people who agree that it is best to push out the space frontier. Please don’t screw with the market in which they are doing this.<br /><br />You want it done faster? So did I. When I was a kid I was fed a vision of the future that didn’t materialize. I wanted government to fulfill that vision. Didn’t happen. I wanted the big space companies to do it. Didn’t happen. I acquired an education suited to entering into employment with either one of them to roll up my own sleeves and deliver. They weren’t hiring for that. Eventually, I came to the realization that I’d been given a beautiful fantasy. Reality was different. Many of us came to that realization, talked about it, and then decided to @#%@ them all. We’d do it ourselves. It’s been a lifetime of work, but we learned a number of things that don’t work (I could write a big fat book on that) and a few tricks that do work. Oddly enough, those tricks were already well known to the entrepreneurial community. <br /><br />Want it done faster? Learn those tricks. Don’t steal people’s money to do what your people think is best. Earn it and the respect that goes with successfully persuading people to save humanity.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-22546973563013569252019-03-27T11:34:10.331-07:002019-03-27T11:34:10.331-07:00You make a good point there Treebeard. If you loo...You make a good point there Treebeard. If you look at the environmental impact of people’s leisure time you should be able to separate out those who walk the walk from those who just want to tell you what to do. Everyone has more control over their leisure time activities than anything other activity. <br /><br />I really don’t understand how someone can believe that we are in the middle of an environmental and ecological crisis, think of themselves as an environmentalist, yet still flies around the world for fun. <br />jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07865068658069680309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-40660598715369843992019-03-27T10:36:37.721-07:002019-03-27T10:36:37.721-07:00I'm not helping the evil feudal lords. My idea...I'm not helping the evil feudal lords. My idea of a good time is walking in the woods. I'm sure I produce less carbon than you, who jets around lecturing people about how to save the world. If humanity is going to have a bright future, I'm pretty sure it will be in spite of Dr. Strangelove-types who spend a lot of time thinking about mine shafts, subersive Russkies and culling troglodytes from the gene pool, not because of them.Treebeardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-69494554278502701582019-03-27T10:34:53.222-07:002019-03-27T10:34:53.222-07:00The democrats in the senate have no power and no s...The democrats in the senate have no power and no spine.<br />I think the two are related.<br /><br />jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07865068658069680309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-61038645043311828922019-03-27T10:12:11.153-07:002019-03-27T10:12:11.153-07:00
Mike Will made a good snark: “We choose to go to ...<br />Mike Will made a good snark: “We choose to go to the moon, not because it is hard, but because it is easy.” Dig it again: HUMANITY is going back to the dusty, useless lunar surface, because it’s a close, easy sandbox for kindergarteners to learn to walk. To strut around and declare: “Today I am a man!” Sure, there are almost no resources down that gravity well and no wealth or near term benefits. But sure, I might be wrong! So let the Chinese, Russians, Indians, Euros, billionaire tourists and other Apollo wannabes romp around “exploring” at the bottom of that gravity well. Happy bar moonsvah!” Let us know if you find anything surprising or valuable and we’ll drop in for a look.<br /><br />Meanwhile, there are much harder things for the U.S. and Japanese to do out there. <br /><br />Yana, sorry, I am all in favor of human colonization of space. But the lifeboat argument is weak. Almost any dollar spent putting humans and habitats in one cubic meter of lunar lava tube will create 1000 cubic meters of shelter in some mineshaft or new excavation down here on Earth. Even if the air became unbreathable, it will remain accessible for easy purification, with infinite supplies of water. And generations would have a nearby city ruin to mine for almost anything they’d ever need. <br /><br />Mind you if I saw some doom approaching, I’d spend whatever it takes to do both!<br /><br />==<br />jim your attack on democrats is utter malarkey. They do not have power, at the national level. So look at what Dem-led STATES are doing. And they are doing a lot. <br /><br />Jon S a major future lunar tourist attraction will be dome flying, with wings.<br /><br />Treebeard, we got plenty of threats other than falling rocks. Like trog-jerks helping shortsighted lords to poison the atmosphere till gigatons of methane come boiling out of the tundra. A ruthless future humanity won’t have qualms about culling the gene pool of such.<br /><br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-38730152663968681362019-03-27T09:59:26.849-07:002019-03-27T09:59:26.849-07:00I follow the situation in the Arctic pretty closel...I follow the situation in the Arctic pretty closely and this years melt season has just begun. The winter was a little bit colder than the last 2 years in the arctic and we ended up at the 7th lowest maximum surface area for Arctic sea ice. <br /><br /><br />But the beginning of this melt season is a bit disconcerting. We have lost more than 400,000 square kilometers of ice in the last 4 days (that is more like summer time melting). And the weather forecasts for the arctic are stable and show that this melting should continue for many more days. <br /><br />The early part of the melting season in the arctic is critical in determining the total melt for the year. A cold spring in the arctic means that getting a new record low is almost impossible. But a warm spring creates the albedo feedback loop with lots of melt ponds all over the ice and tundra. <br /><br />It is too early to tell if this spring in the arctic will give us a new low in arctic sea ice (by the middle of May we should have a good idea) but this doesn't look good. jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07865068658069680309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-78832875492691840192019-03-27T07:29:24.067-07:002019-03-27T07:29:24.067-07:00Geez, we're referencing Resnick's 'Tal...Geez, we're referencing Resnick's 'Tales of the Velvet Comet' AND Vance's 'The Face' here. If you see the similarities.raitonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-64610161113856125212019-03-27T07:24:34.249-07:002019-03-27T07:24:34.249-07:00The only threat I'm hearing about are asteroid...The only threat I'm hearing about are asteroids. So put resources into asteroid defense. Sending a few humans to a dead, unliveable rock doesn't solve anything. What Yana is suggesting is like someone who lives on a very nice estate near a river, and instead of building a dike to protect against a once a century flood, decides to sell everything and buy a one-way ticket to Antarctica because they read some fantasy stories about it as a kid. It's pretty silly.Treebeardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-6814790919703581992019-03-27T06:52:30.997-07:002019-03-27T06:52:30.997-07:00If Tunguska had been in 2008 instead of 1908, you&...If Tunguska had been in 2008 instead of 1908, you're right, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Because someone would have assumed that was a first-strike attack, the missiles would fly, and contrary to what the <i>Fallout</i> games show, computers wouldn't be working very well after a nuclear war.<br /><br />The discussion of 0g sex reminds me of a throwaway bit from Spider and Jeanne Robinson's <i>Stardancer</i>:<br /><br /><i>"Full disclosure: I never cared much for simultaneous oral sex, the classic '69', because of the mutual distraction. In freefall, though, it becomes natural, inevitable."</i><br /><br />JL, you seem unaware of a famous Heinlein quote: "The Earth is just too small and fragile a basket for the human race to keep all its eggs in." Lunar colonies are quite possible; Lunar vacations would probably be easier for most people to manage than orbital ones, as this avoids motion sickness during the actual vacation part. (IME, the misery of motion sickness fades quickly once the cause is removed - getting off the fishing boat greatly improved my fishing experience. :) ) Something similar could be said for Mars; it's the asteroid colonies that I would expect to be primarily about profit from mining and such, while Luna and Mars would be either <i>lebensraum</i> or scientific outposts. And frankly I wouldn't expect these offworld colonies to be founded before profits from space start rolling in, because, well, people.<br /><br />Larry, I wouldn't worry about that logo too much - the man couldn't even run a casino in Atlantic City at a profit, back when there were only two places in the US to gamble legally. He's not going to actually build an orbital habitat, although he might crowdfund on the process then redirect the funds to his personal accounts.Jon S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13585842845661267920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-59588606869922096302019-03-27T06:12:37.273-07:002019-03-27T06:12:37.273-07:00In other news
Senate Democrats clearly demonstrat...In other news <br />Senate Democrats clearly demonstrate to the world that they stand for nothing. Oh they love to talk about Climate Change because it allows them to paint Republicans as evil and use that as a substitute for action. But expecting elected democrats to actually support taking effective action to address climate change is just wish fulfillment. <br /><br />I didn't really think that Trump would have a good shot at a second term but now I think democrats are very busy showing us all how useless they are and that does not bode well for the election.<br /><br /><br />I know most people here think I am way to pessimistic about our ongoing eco-crisis but we are not really taking effective action to prevent it form getting much worse, so I think the only honest expectation is for things to keep getting worse. Sure there will be a lot of talk, and maybe some show programs but nothing really effective. We will probably keep on that track until a major crisis hits (my guess for the crisis is famine) and then we will switch to panic mode. And depending on what we do in panic mode things could get much worse.jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07865068658069680309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-35770254469310409752019-03-27T04:30:45.956-07:002019-03-27T04:30:45.956-07:00yana:
But i'll tell Mom and Dad that i'm...yana:<br /><i><br /> But i'll tell Mom and Dad that i'm going to do research, yep research, on a potential job on Ceres, that's the ticket.<br /></i><br /><br />Venus. It's already got a salable name.<br /><br />My biggest fear is a huge space hotel with a visible-from-earth "TRUMP" logo degrading the universe.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-59171180672757870522019-03-27T04:24:47.162-07:002019-03-27T04:24:47.162-07:00yana:
Nobody seems to understand the urgency, dan...yana:<br /><i><br />Nobody seems to understand the urgency, dang i wish Tunguska had happened 100 years later. If Siberia had got all blowed up in 2008 instead of 1908, there would be no argument about any of this.<br /></i><br /><br />What if the <b>moon</b> had gotten hit in 2008? That's my point. I'm not arguing that it's a good idea to eventually colonize. I'm wondering why you think the moon is a safer place than earth is.<br /><br /><i><br />If the next island over is 15 meters higher, then that's where you go. <br /></i><br /><br />But if it's 15 meters <b>lower</b> than it does you no good. Even if it's at the <b>same</b> elevation, it does you no good. You seem to be saying more than "There are big, dangerous rocks out there". You perceive a specific threat to earth that doesn't pertain to the moon and insist on an emergency evacuation to a place that IMHO is more likely to be wiped out by the kind of disaster you envision than the earth is.<br /><br />Unless you know something you're not telling. Something specific, I mean.<br />Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-57160910085520433182019-03-27T04:24:43.690-07:002019-03-27T04:24:43.690-07:00I've been reading US leaders' proclamation...I've been reading US leaders' proclamations about space exploration. I could be summarized by: We choose to go to the moon, not because it is hard, but because it is easy.<br /><br />I'm all for the moon, but it's being used not as a stepping stone, but as an excuse. This is how we got 40+ years of low Earth orbit. NASA signs the SLS postponement notice with 'Ad Astra'. Bit cheeky what?<br />Mike Willhttp://scidata.canoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-57527542434978809822019-03-27T02:28:25.329-07:002019-03-27T02:28:25.329-07:00Larry Hart thought:
"If your species lives o...<br />Larry Hart thought:<br /><br />"<i>If your species lives on an island which is about to flood, you don't escape extinction by migrating to the neighboring island.</i>"<br /><br />Yes, you do. You do whatever makes you and your kids survive. If the next island over is 15 meters higher, then that's where you go. Nobody seems to understand the urgency, dang i wish Tunguska had happened 100 years later. If Siberia had got all blowed up in 2008 instead of 1908, there would be no argument about any of this.<br /><br />"<i>Degenerating into discussions of celestial noogie may seem as if we're not taking the subject seriously</i>"<br /><br />No need to be sheepish, we saw what success erotica had in the scriptorium days, what influence it had after printing was invented, and the explosion now with digital publishing. What were covens in the 1600s became sexclubs in West Berlin, and will become "r+r stops" for the people doing the hard work of going to the Moon and miners on their way back from a tour of duty on asteroids.<br /><br />Historically, we can not discount the role of the Kit Kat Club in bringing down the Iron Curtain. In space it's not going to be barfing and Formula 409 like 'jim' frights. It's just that we can't sell that aspect, not yet, not aloud. Sign me up, if there's a list to do sex in 0G. But i'll tell Mom and Dad that i'm going to do research, yep research, on a potential job on Ceres, that's the ticket.yananoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-11075009592653012222019-03-27T01:33:29.012-07:002019-03-27T01:33:29.012-07:00yana:
Tellin' ya, the work of going to the Mo...yana:<br /><i><br />Tellin' ya, the work of going to the Moon might be the last thing we need Big Gov't to do, ever. <br /></i><br /><br />If your bugaboo is big rocks flying around, isn't the moon a bit close to earth to be a safe alternative? I get your cause for concern, but your solution to end all solutions sounds a bit...I dunno, "weak" maybe? If your species lives on an island which is about to flood, you don't escape extinction by migrating to the neighboring island.<br /><br /><i><br />It is funny yet a bit disappointing that 1/3 of the posts here degenerated into salacious postulation (positioning?) <br /></i><br /><br />Degenerating into discussions of celestial noogie may seem as if we're not taking the subject seriously, but I'm tellin' ya, that sort of thing is what motivates actual people to actually get things done. If there were green Star Trek babes out there, we'd already have starships. Absent that, we work with what we have. Think again of internet porn. The technology and logistics that are worked out in order to get us the Bunny Ranch in Space will then be available for other uses.<br />Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-39737455707205709782019-03-27T00:20:37.489-07:002019-03-27T00:20:37.489-07:00Progressbot
I don’t own a personal blog, if that i...Progressbot<br />I don’t own a personal blog, if that is what you are searching for.<br /><br />Everyone in general<br />While I support robotic exploration of space many of the fact lead to the conclusion that the vast majority of space projects people want to pursue, mainly any form of colonisation but also to a lesser extent mining, will require so much money, fuel resources and not to mention the problems with living with inhospitable condition of space in general, shall never be accomplished.J.L.Mc12noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-45335101140668133092019-03-26T23:27:10.031-07:002019-03-26T23:27:10.031-07:00>> Anonymous J.L.Mc12
I just googled for y...>> Anonymous J.L.Mc12 <br /><br />I just googled for your pecular nick-name. If judge by topics you rise here and there, you are quite interesting one, for my liking.<br />Would like to talk more with you. About different stuff. ;)<br /><br />PS dr.Brin, I know about my sinnful bechavior. Sorry. :((progresbotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-73334906126622399042019-03-26T23:11:44.200-07:002019-03-26T23:11:44.200-07:00Progessbot
I’m sorry, it is true that not all of y...Progessbot<br />I’m sorry, it is true that not all of you share the same views on space colonisation.J.L.Mc12noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-17765730768752675982019-03-26T23:01:28.263-07:002019-03-26T23:01:28.263-07:00\\a vacuum chamber, a chemical waste dump, Chernob...\\a vacuum chamber, a chemical waste dump, Chernobyl and the Death Valley desert .<br /><br />And well... here is no one. Who propose to relocate humanity to Mercury (closest to described, I presume).progressbotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-21161438110165197282019-03-26T22:57:30.376-07:002019-03-26T22:57:30.376-07:00It's not US. It's just yana here. For what...It's not US. It's just yana here. For whatever personal issues he/she has.progressbotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-30894905712315891222019-03-26T22:47:40.651-07:002019-03-26T22:47:40.651-07:00I find it odd that the best way you people can thi...I find it odd that the best way you people can think up to save humanity from extinction is to waste colossal amounts of fuel, materials and cash trying to move people to worlds that can best be described as a mix between a vacuum chamber, a chemical waste dump, Chernobyl and the Death Valley desert .<br />J.L.Mc12noreply@blogger.com