tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post2860391251417365434..comments2024-03-18T17:09:55.964-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: International Tensions: Russia, China and Putin!David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger46125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-69195496128140751782018-10-30T01:54:27.082-07:002018-10-30T01:54:27.082-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.siskahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07076079736141144027noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-33707849583006923322015-08-20T02:13:21.514-07:002015-08-20T02:13:21.514-07:00P.S. The idea of a conspiracy of the super-rich c...P.S. The idea of a conspiracy of the super-rich came from your book "Existence" which I bought as soon as it came out and loved.Deuxglasshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488986307291616948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-69822302011745218052015-08-20T02:13:20.583-07:002015-08-20T02:13:20.583-07:00P.S. The idea of a conspiracy of the super-rich c...P.S. The idea of a conspiracy of the super-rich came from your book "Existence" which I bought as soon as it came out and loved.Deuxglasshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488986307291616948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-11733951244103600532015-08-20T02:11:14.236-07:002015-08-20T02:11:14.236-07:00Dr. Brin,
I am glad you found my scenario intere...Dr. Brin,<br /><br /> I am glad you found my scenario interesting. It definitely is scary but so is Putin if he really is a communist. I do want to make it absolutely clear that I am against a world like the one I described. I got the idea while watching Elysium where the super-rich lived in an orbiting Beverly Hills while the underclass lived on the Earth in dire poverty and what was this underclass doing? They were making robots whose principle use was to repress this same underclass! Surely if you have the technical means to put Beverly Hills into orbit then you have the means to have robots and AI make whatever you want and if this is true then the mass of humanity is of no use to the super rich hence the idea that a communist evil dictator who is also an extreme psychopath would find it better just to eliminate them. <br /><br />As you said having the super-rich live in high-density cities would be more efficient of resources but the main characteristics of the super-rich is that their life-style is very resource intensive. It is in fact an objective. If you have it then flaunt it. In the present many live in cities but they all have vast country estates so they prefer having the best of both worlds. By the way I have nothing against the super-rich, I wouldn’t mind being one myself. Some hyper-environmentalists tell me that the population of the Earth should go down to only 100 million (they conveniently don’t mention how). At that level, with robotics and AI I would guess that a world consisting of only the super-rich would be possible. Please let me reiterate that I am not advocating such a society but only using it in the Putin as a communist scenario. <br /><br />Alfred Differ,<br />I see it as science fiction and not fantasy. Obviously we do not yet have the technical means to do the scenario today so Putin couldn’t do it but let’s look 100 years into the future and in that case a disciple of Putin could put it in place. The super-rich would still use some humans but not to make things but rather to use as house servants. It would be seen as vulgar to have your drinks served by a robot so there would still be an underclass albeit a much smaller one.<br /><br />You are right that this scenario fits better with the US and other developed countries rather than in Russia. However I can see where Putin gives the world’s super-rich the idea and the blueprint to put it into practice. It may already be happening for all we know!! Let’s hope that Br. Brin’s Transparent Society comes soon.<br /><br /><br /><br />Deuxglassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-42991822985690620622015-08-19T16:28:23.261-07:002015-08-19T16:28:23.261-07:00Heh. Two points about the Putin scenario.
1. To g...Heh. Two points about the Putin scenario.<br /><br />1. To get a Singularity event, you need the golden age to occur first before the die off. They don't happen without a large population driving the advancements. Put the cart before the horse in the story and one is writing fantasy instead of science fiction.<br /><br />2. I suspect the 95% would be better put to use AS the robots. [V. Vinge's Focus]<br /><br /><br />I'd also add that the moguls best situated to pull this off are in the US and its trading partners, not in Russia. For the sake of the story, then, Putin would be the decoy so the opposing forces reveal themselves against the wrong target.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-58129570035864365592015-08-19T16:04:01.921-07:002015-08-19T16:04:01.921-07:00onward
and...
onwardonward<br /><br />and...<br /><br />onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-89453840205235131462015-08-19T16:00:27.340-07:002015-08-19T16:00:27.340-07:00Hi Jumper
You don't need contact to transfer e...Hi Jumper<br />You don't need contact to transfer electrical power, a lot of machinery in industry is now powered by non contact induction "rails"<br />I attended a talk a few years ago by an engineering prof from Auckland where he was discussing chargers that would be under the floor of your garage<br />The geometry of the coils was important and I think he was working at 20kHz but that resulted in a system that was not too sensitive to alignment and would work with a 200mm air gap<br /><br />He was also working on a road that charged the vehicles as they drove on it<br />The biggest issue with that was making it robust enough so it was not damaged by heavy trucks<br /> duncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-15069959262358178132015-08-19T13:48:11.704-07:002015-08-19T13:48:11.704-07:00The new trailer for "The Martian..." I&#...The new trailer for "The Martian..." I'm actually starting to believe (more hope) that Hollywood didn't screw this up ...<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ej3ioOneTy8David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-2240011204959235872015-08-19T13:28:34.775-07:002015-08-19T13:28:34.775-07:00Deuxglass your scenario is scary! And it is the p...Deuxglass your scenario is scary! And it is the plot driver for the truly awful recent flick KINGSMEN.<br /><br />But we know that there is a kind of super-richness that is not as resource intensive. Putting everyone in high density city living in really nice apartments can be done at lower resource use than beverly hills billionaires.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-38872254191654426232015-08-19T12:52:54.237-07:002015-08-19T12:52:54.237-07:00Jumper,
I go further than that. Use rails entirel...Jumper,<br /><br />I go further than that. Use rails entirely. It's far, far easier to have a self-driving vehicle on rails than it is when it's completely unconstrained. There are many advantages to this. Unfortunately, it's extremely disruptive in several ways.raitonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-36209875919465703102015-08-19T09:06:37.250-07:002015-08-19T09:06:37.250-07:00Once again I'll recommend a system of personal...Once again I'll recommend a system of personal transportation powered by a live electrified rail - known as a "busbar" in industry, or cables which power light rail such as the commuter light rail in my city. With smart cars and the "octopus arm" car cable recently demonstrated, it's got to be easy to have a car that unfolds an arm to clamp on to a power strip alongside a roadway. Smaller batteries could be used. I suppose trucks and even heavy freight trains could use similar power. I wouldn't be surprised to see in the future freight trains which simply stop at night (solar power with long-distance DC transmission) and start again in the morning. It's certainly better than a complete breakdown in transportation!<br /><br />Also, I read the Wikipedia article on Russian foreign relations last night. It's informative.<br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_relations_of_Russia<br />The researcher might also try plugging in various countries for more specific articles in the form of "Russian-Japanese relations." As the example:<br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan%E2%80%93Russia_relationsJumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-66195595520803597932015-08-19T08:01:53.479-07:002015-08-19T08:01:53.479-07:00Duncan Cairncross
If you remember, in Dr. Brin... Duncan Cairncross<br /><br />If you remember, in Dr. Brin's article, he asked for science fiction scenarios in which Putin is a true communist and has a plan to bring it back. What I wrote is just a story outline and that's it. My ideas on Putin are completely different. Deuxglassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1544192364209978732015-08-19T06:39:09.684-07:002015-08-19T06:39:09.684-07:00Daniel Duffy
Lee freed slaves as executor of the ...Daniel Duffy<br /><br />Lee freed slaves as executor of the Custis estate. Their emancipation was required by the last will and testament of George Washington Custis, Lee's father-in-law, and he delayed freeing them as long as possible.<br /><br />http://americancivilwar.com/authors/Joseph_Ryan/Articles/General-Lee-Slaves/General-Lee-Family-Slaves.html Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-19719967507949188882015-08-19T04:41:11.591-07:002015-08-19T04:41:11.591-07:00"The essential problem with communism is that..."<i>The essential problem with communism is that it makes everyone, except for those at the very top, very poor</i>"<br /><br />East Germany GDP per capita in 1990 was 9.700 dollars, nearly equal to Spain's per capita GDP at the time, larger than Ireland's or Israel's, much larger than Taiwan, twice as big as South Korea's. Lots of resources hoarded by the ruling class or wasted on bloated militaries and surveillance systems, and as a result shortages were rather common, but even taking this into account, communist regimes still had de facto middle-classes who were far from being poor.<br /><br />I lived in Hungary during the late 90s, and met plenty of people who, despite <b>not</b> belonging to the ruling-class under Kadar became measurably poorer when the regime and economy changed: something that wouldn't have been the case if "<i>everyone had been very poor</i>" under the previous regime.<br /><br />The reason Western Europe's large welfare state's remained virtually unchallenged outside of the UK until the 90s was that most european right-wing politicians were keenly aware that without generous welfare policies, members of the Eastern European working classes would eventually become wealthier than their western counterparts, making the prospect of a communist revolution/dekulakization of Western Europe very alluring for the western Hoi Polloi. So they didn't try to dismantle the welfare regimes imagined by social-democrats, which ensured that the western european model remained more attractive than vengeful revolution, which in the end made a fuckton more to undermine the Soviet Empire than Reagan's bluster and gifts to the military-industrial complex.<br /><br />Sure, with no democratic oversight, no free press, and incestuous bordering on sclerosed mechanisms of elite renewal, Soviet-style governments were fated to sooner or later devolve into parasitic bureaucratic systems similar to those displayed by every decadent Chinese dynasty (or the current North-Korean regime), but the process was not immediate.Laurent Weppenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-86369135046301951522015-08-19T04:27:41.839-07:002015-08-19T04:27:41.839-07:00Trying to add a photo - see if this worksTrying to add a photo - see if this worksduncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-3031117875469972522015-08-19T04:23:08.875-07:002015-08-19T04:23:08.875-07:00CNG vehicles
It's easy to convert a diesel to...CNG vehicles<br /><br />It's easy to convert a diesel to natural gas<br />BUT (there is always a but) you get much lower power density<br />So a 300Hp engine is only good for 200Hp<br /><br />There is a way around that - you use a small amount of diesel as an ignition source and inject the gas charge through special injectors<br />You also normally store the "natural gas" as a liquid (to get around the range issue)<br /><br />It's good stuff - but not a simple conversion - unless you can put up with low power and low range<br /><br />As far as car's are concerned EV's are going to win - simple as that<br />Trucks are a bit different but in about 10 years we will see electric long range trucks<br /><br />To the comments about aging populations and the worsening ratio of workers to retirees<br />Yes that is true - <br />But at the same time you are reducing the number of people too young to work,<br />The studies I have seen make it about a wash <br />Spend more on the old, less on the young<br />The "money" required per worker stays about the same<br /><br />Deuxglass<br />Has the tired old - we can't all be rich - taking resources from the rich make them poor without helping the poor<br />Ignoring the fact that the "rich" have so much that simply spreading it about a bit more evenly would make almost everybody much better offduncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-81135260351113850912015-08-19T03:55:42.465-07:002015-08-19T03:55:42.465-07:00Dr. Brin, I would like come back to Putin implemen...Dr. Brin, I would like come back to Putin implementing his long-term communist plan. <br /><br />Let’s assume again that he is a real, dedicated believer but at the same time he is very intelligent with a good grasp of why it failed the first time around. This time he wants to make it right. The essential problem with communism is that it makes everyone, except for those at the very top, very poor. They are all equal in poverty and that creates unrest and dissatisfaction. The solution obviously is to make everyone wealthy and not just middle-class wealthy but filthy-rich multi-billionaire wealthy. People that rich generally do not start revolutions. Putin, being very well-read and intelligent spends a lot of time surfing the net on many subjects so he is well-aware of advances in robotics, AI and other scientific topics. He is also aware of the Singularity idea. He knows that if you put all that together you have the potential to form a true classless society, one in which everyone is equally filthy-rich. Robots will do all the work from mining to house-help. AI will do all of the coordinating. Humans would just oversee working maybe a day a week leaving them plenty of time to enjoy their wealth. Many will become scientists exploring new frontiers because after all communism encourages science. It sounds like paradise and it is but there a glaring problem, a huge barrier that can undo it all. There is no way the Earth can provide this type of wealth to over 7 billion people. There are just not enough resources. Putin, being a student of history and a Russian, has a solution. Taking Lenin and Stalin as examples all he has to do is to get rid of the extra 95% who are keeping true Communism for happening. This 95% are useless since robots do the work and AI organizes the economy. On top of it they take up space better used for the vast estates of the rich who by the way are very ecological-minded and want to live in pure, pristine nature. We know Putin loves wild animals and the environment because of all the photos taken of him riding horses, hugging bears ect. So Putin gets rid of the 95% (I will leave you as to the method). The Golden Age opens. People have the wealth to do whatever they whenever they want. They live long and rich lives. True Communism has been achieved!<br /><br />One last thing. A few of the 95% escape and live in the wild in small, dispersed bands. This is intolerable and cannot be allowed. They must be hunted down but how? Human, especially desperate ones are very adaptable. You need a robot that can run, jump and climb like a feral human. Fortunately back in 2015 DARPA gave a grant to Google-owned Boston Dynamics and gave the solution to the feral-human problem.<br /><br />Here is the video:<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqRKzI59eRo<br />Deuxglassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-29081486997934503052015-08-19T03:12:39.673-07:002015-08-19T03:12:39.673-07:00As for China taking over Siberia - or dominating t...As for China taking over Siberia - or dominating the world - China is also going down the demographic drain. The population projections are so bad they are desperately trying to switch to a two-baby poliy. But they are already too late:<br /><br />http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/08/concern-about-low-fertility-trap-china.html<br /><br />They believe that China's current total fertility rate is 1.4, which well below the generational replacement level of 2.1, has been very close to the internationally recognized "low fertility trap 1.3 "as soon as possible from a single two children to the full liberalization of two-child policy transition.<br /><br />In the early 1970s, birthrates in China were 4.77 per cent. By 2011 the figure had fallen to 1.64 per cent, forcing the government to deal with a combination of a rapidly aging population, a shallow labor pool and an imbalance between the sexes.<br /><br />China now has the world’s biggest yet most rapidly aging population. By 2050, China will have nearly 440million over-60s, according to UN estimates.<br /><br />China's labor pool of 16 to 59-year-olds has been dropping since 2012, and this has coincided with a downturn in economic growth and a rise in unemployment.<br /><br />.<br />Of all the advanced industrial nations, only America has a high enough birth rate and the ability to accept immigrants to ensure that it has a bright future. Everyone else including China are demographically speaking "dead men walking".<br />DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-5528934705069845692015-08-19T03:02:55.637-07:002015-08-19T03:02:55.637-07:00Paul SB "I don't know how easy it is to c...Paul SB "I don't know how easy it is to convert cars to methane, but I see LNG cars often enough to point to the possibility of it replacing gasoline for transportation. "<br /><br />We converted an entire fleet of equipment and trucks at a local landfill to compressed natural gas (CNG). we found that after factory modifications were expensive but it was relatively cheap to produce CNG trucks at the factory even as special orders:<br /><br />http://foresternetwork.com/daily/waste/innovation-at-the-pump/<br /><br />By comparison, natural gas is 80% cheaper than oil on an energy equivalent basis. As noted by the American Enterprise Institute: “In February [2013] oil was selling for an average of $95.32 per barrel, and natural gas was selling for $3.34 per million Btu. At a multiple of 5.8 times to equal the same amount of energy produced by a barrel of oil, natural gas was selling for the equivalent of only $19.38 per barrel.” And according to Autoblog, “Thanks to the precipitous drop in prices for compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquid propane (LPG), fleets can save a fortune by switching over to these fuels. OEMs such as Freightliner and Thomas Built Bus have jumped into the market. International now offers the Transtar Class 8 semi … that runs on CNG. … A fleet can save well over $150,000 in fuel costs over the six-year life of a truck. For fleets that run their per-mile operating costs to the penny, this is a financial windfall.”<br /><br />There are advantages and disadvantages to using CNG:<br /><br />But in the past decade there has emerged a viable third option: CNG. At 20,000 to 22,000 Btu per pound, 5.7 pounds of natural gas has the same energy density as one gallon of gasoline. This amount of energy is referred to as a “gasoline gallon equivalent,” or GGE. A similar rating is diesel gallon equivalent, or DGE. CNG tanks are typically designed for a service pressure of 3,600 psi (250 bar). One GGE of natural gas has a density of 0.0417 to 0.0447 per cubic foot at sea level.<br /><br />Using the gas law, the equivalent GGE at 3,600 psi is approximately 0.517 cubic feet or 3.87 gallons. Therefore, a CNG tank with an interior volume of 20 gallons would hold the energy equivalent of 5 to 6 gallons of gasoline. So in practice, CNG vehicles will have shorter driving ranges verses other vehicles with similar size fuel tanks, operating weights, and engines. But CNG costs less than either diesel or gasoline, burns more efficiently, produces less greenhouse gases, and results in longer engine life. CNG vehicles are therefore a good fit for long-service, high-mileage truck fleets that operate within a limited radius but make repeated return trips to central refueling stations. CNG costs up to $1.50 less per DGE, and projections call for this favorable cost trend to extend well into the future. This translates to annual fuel cost savings (natural gas versus diesel) of up to $15,000 per truck (www.cleanenergyfuels.com).<br /><br />Most of the methane used by the waste industry is extracted from landfill gas (LFG, about 50% methane, 50% CO2 and trace amounts of VOCs and SVOCs) and anaerobic digesters. <br /><br />Compared to battery operated EVs, CNG vehicles are far superior. In terms of both energy density and not having to handle worn out batteries (even the best rechargeable battery will wear out over time and end up as hazwaste) CNG is the better choice. <br /><br />IMHO, instead of plugging our EVs into the socket when we get home at night, we should have CNG vehicle that tap into our natural gas pipelines.DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-64549835608222234502015-08-18T20:43:07.933-07:002015-08-18T20:43:07.933-07:00Dr. Brin, I'm not disagreeing with you. Bounci...Dr. Brin, I'm not disagreeing with you. Bouncing off what Daniel Duffy wrote, the energy density of methane is 5 - 10 KJ higher than gasoline, which would suggest it might have a greater fuel efficiency. It's not that methane is a bad choice of a transition fuel, as it burns cleaner than every other fossil fuel. I don't know how easy it is to convert cars to methane, but I see LNG cars often enough to point to the possibility of it replacing gasoline for transportation. The problem with that idea is replacing the gasoline infrastructure with LNG infrastructure. But that's off the subject. My point about systems theory is that when you see change happening that quickly, it is usually an indication that the loop is about to collapse. In this case it would be resource depletion, which is quite common in human history. I have no clue how long our estimated methane reserves are good for, but they are finite either way.<br /><br />Someone brought up Rollerball in the last thread, a movie I barely remember seeing. I may be remembering wrong, but did they have their future set up where most people drove electric cars but emergency vehicles were gas powered? An idea might be to move us toward more electric vehicles for most uses but permit gas and/or methane for emergency vehicles, military use and probably industrial purposes that need the greater power. I drive a hybrid (though not a Prius - too rich for my blood) and I get annoyed when I see people driving around in enormous trucks when it is clear the only use they have for all that power is to stroke their enormous egos.Paul SBnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-76556070553863156522015-08-18T18:27:54.310-07:002015-08-18T18:27:54.310-07:00I don't think Stratfor underestimates the Russ...I don't think Stratfor underestimates the Russian willingness to suffer. They've talked about the 'Russian tragedy' a few times. They point out that they have people and resources and could do great things, but they won't because they don't believe they will. They believe they will be beset by their neighbors and history backs them up. They are an example of a culture that has most of what it needs except a defensible border in which it can reside confidently while devoting resources toward their future. In the US, we have many of the same things, but we are blessed with that difficult border. We don't know war here except those we've brought upon ourselves. It makes a huge difference.<br /><br />As for Russia's immediate troubles, it is August. What should we expect? August is a difficult month for them.<br /><br /><br />...and as for Siberia, Russia won't sell it until it is already lost to them. It would be as spectacular a failure as the demise of the USSR in '91. They WILL lose Siberia, but I suspect that is about a generation away. China can't take it right now without a huge financial risk and they already have enough trouble in that regard. If their finances hold up, the clock is ticking, though.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-66655446690077138312015-08-18T17:15:23.268-07:002015-08-18T17:15:23.268-07:00I see Putin as being more of a wannabe Emperor tha...I see Putin as being more of a wannabe Emperor than Marxist hero. His former wife gave him only daughters and I would not be surprised if his cute, young mistress (a former Olympic rhythmic gymnast) has born him a son or two. He might think that if he can beat the West and regain imperial glory for the Rooskies, then they will let him start a new Tsarist dynasty.<br />-AtomicZeppelinManAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-29100671561830331032015-08-18T14:57:47.709-07:002015-08-18T14:57:47.709-07:00I suspect Putin believes political theories are fo...I suspect Putin believes political theories are for losers, and that power follows different rules altogether. I think he's basically a mafioso.<br />A friend once told me how she lived in a building occupied by a mafia don, and he literally took care of people in the building, doing such things as paying rent for an old lady who couldn't afford it on her pension when the rents were raised, spread groceries around, etc. She told me he bought loyalty, and that she herself had been "bought:" she felt he wasn't that bad a guy.<br />That's all a politician - or a mafioso - needs to know.Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-21478104053185629782015-08-18T14:54:38.046-07:002015-08-18T14:54:38.046-07:00The declining demographics of Russia aren't as...The declining demographics of Russia aren't as bad as some make it out to be. <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2014/09/03/8-things-masha-gessen-got-wrong-about-russian-demography/" rel="nofollow">E.g. see here for some analysis.</a>atomsmithnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-3990229559471173512015-08-18T11:27:23.083-07:002015-08-18T11:27:23.083-07:00Deuxglass thanks for the cogent thoughts on the ac...Deuxglass thanks for the cogent thoughts on the actual topic of this posting! <br /><br />Stratfor underestimates the Russian capacity for suffering. But if Siberia goes to the Chinese, then Russians might rise up. My own, crackpot What-if is that Putin is STILL a Marxist and he recognizes that 100 oligarchs owning the means of production is exactly the last phase before proletarian take-over.<br /><br />In fact, I give odds against my scenario, because if it were true, Putin would be strengthening Russian labor unions. Or would he? As I said, I raise some What-ifs NOT because I believe they are probable… but because they are plausible-but-never-discussed.<br /><br />What’s clear is that the Chinese Marxists now utterly reject Lenin’s idea to skip the Capitalist Consolidation phase. Marx said capitalists are needed and Xi and his comrades now believe it. The question is whether they still believe this phase will lead to communism. Again, it seems unlikely that they are sincere. But they might be.<br /><br />Paul, we need renewables and efficiency as fast as possible. Hear any argument from me? But there WILL be a transition. Better if King Coal, King Saud and King Rupert weren’t influencing it. Cheap methane does all that while strengthening the US economy enough to ease fear-driven politics.<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com