tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post115455538140550915..comments2024-03-29T00:39:31.629-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Investigating Climate ChangeDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-25919860718398124522007-05-07T17:23:00.000-07:002007-05-07T17:23:00.000-07:00Seen from a larger perspective, Crichton's book is...Seen from a larger perspective, Crichton's book is just part of his whole approach to sales: controversy. All of his books take on similarly absurd and often imflammatory themes:<BR/><BR/>1) Jurrasic Park: Science plays god and pays in a psuedo-Christian karmic outcome<BR/><BR/>2) Rising Sun: Look out, Japs!<BR/><BR/>3) Disclosure: Look out, Women!<BR/><BR/> State of Fear is just another in a line of schlock meant for the hollywood production millAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1155177899226450502006-08-09T19:44:00.000-07:002006-08-09T19:44:00.000-07:00In the ongoing debate between the warmers and the ...In the ongoing debate between the warmers and the skeptics, my impression is that the skeptics are winning. Read ClimateAudit.org to get their side of the story.<BR/><BR/>Relative to RealClimate, ClimateAudit has the benefit of not being heavily censored to present a single favored side. Thus, actual debate takes place in the comments, with those who have contrary views allowed to fully (if politely) state their case.Glenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14661650090485723755noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154739520634373242006-08-04T17:58:00.000-07:002006-08-04T17:58:00.000-07:00Here's a classic one from Peggy Noonan (speech wri...Here's a classic one from Peggy Noonan (speech writer for George Bush Senior) who know believes in globalwarming. But if it is a problem, we should blame the scientists. It's their fault for being partisan and not being clear enough.<BR/><BR/>http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/pnoonan/?id=110008676Adrian Cotterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10187651423761530436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154721473304344092006-08-04T12:57:00.000-07:002006-08-04T12:57:00.000-07:00Oops.Typo above, 2100 is the predicted time aragon...Oops.<BR/>Typo above, 2100 is the predicted time aragonite will be soluble in sunlit shallow ocean waters. The cite is to a 2001 publication.<BR/><BR/>Primary source:<BR/><BR/>[PDF] WHOI Calcification Workshop May 2001 Organic Carbon ...<BR/>... Aragonite and Calcite Saturation Depths in the Global Oceans. <BR/>http://www.ametsoc.org/atmospolicy/documents/October52005OceanAcidity-RichardFeely.pdfHank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154721239061254482006-08-04T12:53:00.000-07:002006-08-04T12:53:00.000-07:00RealClimate.org has a search box at the top of the...RealClimate.org has a search box at the top of the home page.<BR/><BR/>Acidification, 2005 (also discussed more recently, but this was the main thread):<BR/>http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/07/the-acid-ocean-the-other-problem-with-cosub2sub-emission/<BR/><BR/>See their sidebar on the right -- the "Contributors" are the climate scientists who run the page. The list of Comments is recent replies by anyone; below that the list "... With Inline Responses" gives links to the places where the climate scientists have followed up (in a different font/color) in a particular comment. <BR/><BR/>They invite experts in to start new threads frequently.<BR/><BR/>Lag time for responses to show up is sometimes significant -- the site's done by very busy people.<BR/><BR/>I've seen no better resource.<BR/><BR/>2001 is the predicted time when calcium carbonate (aragonite) will be soluble in sunlit/shallow water and we lose the plankton that make shells from it. At that point the whole food chain gets recreated from scratch ("scratch" being photosynthesis, the point where most raw material becomes life, in shallow ocean water). Whether there's a spot at the top of it for large mammals will be interesting.<BR/><BR/>We are seeing the Fermi Paradox in action, I think.<BR/><BR/>Or else the aliens are reworking the planet to suit their own tastes before revealing themselves. I've always wondered if some of our leaders were human. Time will tell.Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154708416142404332006-08-04T09:20:00.000-07:002006-08-04T09:20:00.000-07:00Frosty, the fact of a single similar fire in PA is...Frosty, the fact of a single similar fire in PA is tangential, if putting it out along with halting all the cars in the U.S. still doesn't solve the problem, because of similar problems in Asia.Rob Perkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13115249244056328076noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154706702181207172006-08-04T08:51:00.000-07:002006-08-04T08:51:00.000-07:00Rob Perkins: We've got underground fires here in ...Rob Perkins: We've got underground fires here in the USA burning continuously since 1961: See Centralia Pennsylvania: http://www.google.com/search?q=centralia,+pennsylvaniaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154706263579148882006-08-04T08:44:00.000-07:002006-08-04T08:44:00.000-07:00Mark: I thought that quote directly supported what...Mark: I thought that quote directly supported what Brin's been saying about how the action of citizens is more effective than the authorities, quoted directly from one of the people in the chain of authority.<BR/><BR/>In the rest of the article, the time lags detailed by the tapes, quotes, and discussion indicates that our national leaders really didn't and couldn't do anything effective. Within the time-scale of real-life terrorist attacks, Bush, Cheney or anyone in a command post can't do anything effective. Any boasting that they made crisp decisions or could do anything essential is just political puffery.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154664496586453882006-08-03T21:08:00.000-07:002006-08-03T21:08:00.000-07:00Gah! Tangent, you mean to say that no matter what ...Gah! Tangent, you mean to say that no matter what anyone does in the U.S., the carelessness of coal miners in Asia will negate our combined efforts?<BR/><BR/>Got to be a way to put out those fires.Rob Perkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13115249244056328076noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154646554461983072006-08-03T16:09:00.000-07:002006-08-03T16:09:00.000-07:00Cheers.Monkyboy writes Doesn't oil come from plank...Cheers.<BR/><BR/>Monkyboy writes <I>Doesn't oil come from plankton?</I><BR/><BR/>Oil is the product of decomposition and distillation under specific (and not so common) conditions of the organic matter derived by the death of marine biomass - mostly plankton, yes.<BR/><BR/>But foraminiferal tests are basically carbonate shells, that survive the decomposition of the dead foram, and accumulate to form massive layers of carbonate rocks.<BR/>That's where CO2 gets trapped, in the form of Calcium Carbonate - limestones.<BR/><BR/>Limestones do trap a higher quantity of carbon than coal seams or petroleum reservoirs (both requiring special, uncommon conditions to develop), and as noted by other posters, are more efficient at keeping the stuff out of the system.<BR/><BR/>Coral reefs, now, used to work the same way by the same principle (atmospheric CO2 fixed as limestone), but they are getting scarcer by the day - chiefly through climatic change and (to a lesser extent) human interference.<BR/><BR/>Hope this clears my previous long-winded and obscure post!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154638391180478662006-08-03T13:53:00.000-07:002006-08-03T13:53:00.000-07:00Foraminifera (both plancton and benthos) are curre...<I>Foraminifera (both plancton and benthos) are currently being investigated as the chief candidate to the role of CO2 sink in the oceanic waters - the critters build carbonate shells ("tests") which fix the stuff.</I><BR/><BR/>Doesn't oil come from plankton?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154632562975836372006-08-03T12:16:00.000-07:002006-08-03T12:16:00.000-07:00Frosty, I'm very confused. What was damaging abou...Frosty, I'm very confused. What was damaging about that quote?Xactiphynhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08254344563346437079noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154629394103023872006-08-03T11:23:00.000-07:002006-08-03T11:23:00.000-07:00"are they trustworthy on climate change?"When the ..."are they trustworthy on climate change?"<BR/><BR/>When the time for decisive action finally comes, they'll be prepared with a stirring speech and a package of tax breaks for Halliburton's sand bag subdivision.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154624482688368902006-08-03T10:01:00.000-07:002006-08-03T10:01:00.000-07:00... he suddenly put his head in his hands and crie...<I>... he suddenly put his head in his hands and cried. "Flight 93 was not shot down," he said when he finally looked up. "The individuals on that aircraft, the passengers, they actually took the aircraft down. Because of what those people did, I didn't have to do anything."</I> -- from the Vanity Fair article at http://www.vanityfair.com/features/general/060801fege01<BR/><BR/>And are the people we're trusting to keep us safe with their global-scale decisions, are they trustworthy on climate change?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154622267254316002006-08-03T09:24:00.000-07:002006-08-03T09:24:00.000-07:00Rob Perkins c): Salt and metals are heavier than ...Rob Perkins c): Salt and metals are heavier than water, but since they dissolve in water, they are found suspended in seawater. Freon is heavier than N_2, O_2, and CO_2, but it will still diffuse readily in our atmosphere. The newer larger numbered Freons are heavier and diffuse less easily.<BR/><BR/>http://physchem.ox.ac.uk/MSDS/FREONS/Naming_FREONS.html<BR/><BR/>David Brin: Did you hear about the NORAD transcripts on 9/11? They show that the brave talk of our 'leaders' making hard decisions happened after the all the planes were already down. http://www.vanityfair.com/features/general/060801fege01Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154620900303267222006-08-03T09:01:00.000-07:002006-08-03T09:01:00.000-07:00Massive research?Just levy a big ole carbon tax. T...Massive research?<BR/><BR/>Just levy a big ole carbon tax. The market will respond pretty quick.<BR/><BR/>Boring, but effective.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154617758526519932006-08-03T08:09:00.000-07:002006-08-03T08:09:00.000-07:00a) It is a pricier substitute, which is far more s...a) It is a pricier substitute, which is far more sensitive to moisture and leakage in air conditioning systems than Freon. That has raised the price of installation and maintenance of air conditioning systems. Perhaps it's also raised their efficiency, I dunno.<BR/><BR/>b) Its introduction corresponds to the expiration of Freon's patents.<BR/><BR/>c) People have said to me that Freon is heavier than air, and can't understand how it could get to the upper atmosphere in the first place, to do its damage to the ozone.<BR/><BR/>d) If you don't think DuPont is as powerful on the world scene as Exxon or Shell (or whatever they're calling themselves these days), I suggest another think. <BR/><BR/>At least, those are the arguments I've heard about it. I'm not really interested in conspiracy theories about it; the newer refrigerant is the law and I'm happy to oblige on a luxury item like a home air conditioner. <BR/><BR/>But if there's a decent *history* on the subject, I'm interested. <BR/><BR/>David, thanks for posting the comments of your scientist friend.Rob Perkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13115249244056328076noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154616859623256672006-08-03T07:54:00.000-07:002006-08-03T07:54:00.000-07:00Greetings.I'm butting in here for the first time b...Greetings.<BR/><BR/>I'm butting in here for the first time basically because this is my field of work - I'm a (micro)palaeontologist, I worked on mass extinction connected with environmental collapse and I used to study dead plancton, and foraminifera in particular.<BR/><BR/>Foraminifera (both plancton and benthos) are currently being investigated as the chief candidate to the role of CO2 sink in the oceanic waters - the critters build carbonate shells ("tests") which fix the stuff.<BR/><BR/>We know for a fact that foraminifera acted as CO2 sink in the past, basically regulating the planet's atmospheric and climatic status by decreasing/increasing their reproductive cycles, fixing the carbon and then croaking and sinking to the bottom of the ocean.<BR/><BR/>Our main concern at the moment is, can foraminifera out there _now_ act as a CO2 regulator?<BR/>A lot of pointers seem to suggest that human activity in the last few centuries has put too much CO2 in the atmo for the little critters to swallow it. <BR/><BR/>As it usually happens, the system being a cycle, compromising a part of it causes further damage and a bad feedback.<BR/>Cue to broken feeding chains, shifts in habitats, the whole shebang.<BR/> <BR/>The jury is still out on the subject (AFAIK), but from what was published and presented in Florence 2004, the outlook is bleak.<BR/>The system as provided included a nice regulation mechanism, but the user has apparently overloaded it.<BR/><BR/>I just hope we won't be forced to stop the system and restart it after re-installyng the OS (should someone remember where we put the backup discs) ....<BR/><BR/>And as I am at it, good call on "Collapse", but there's another way of looking at how bad things are/might be that you gentlemen might like to check out and include in your models (as I'm trying to include it in mine)- I mean the panarchy/resilience model developend by the guys at www.resalliance.org<BR/><BR/>And here I cut this long-winded rant.<BR/>Cheers!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154616763888089852006-08-03T07:52:00.000-07:002006-08-03T07:52:00.000-07:00Hmm...the www.icdc7.com site appears to be parked ...Hmm...the www.icdc7.com site appears to be parked or highjacked, though the whois record points to a University of Colorado fellow. Oops...that expired on 21-July-2006. I bet it's been snatched up by someone.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154574923350674442006-08-02T20:15:00.000-07:002006-08-02T20:15:00.000-07:00I thought Collapse was a little more monernist tha...I thought Collapse was a little more monernist than that Dr Brin.<BR/><BR/>Both Iceland and Montana seemed to be positive examples of societies seeing the problem and acting on it.<BR/><BR/>And even the the ecological difference between Haiti and the Dominican republic showed how the same starting point can lead to differnet results depending on the leadership (although this would be a platonic philospher king approach of course), But even in that case he makes the point about the need for development of local NGOs and civil society to maintain this standing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154573832706123062006-08-02T19:57:00.000-07:002006-08-02T19:57:00.000-07:00Interesting, Stefan. Doesn't look like anyone any...Interesting, Stefan. <BR/><BR/>Doesn't look like anyone anywhere near as powerful as the oil and coal companies were defending freon.<BR/><BR/>Jared Diamond, Dr. Brin?<BR/><BR/>Yikes, it took me a year to slog through <I>Guns, Germs and Steel.</I><BR/><BR/>Is <I>Collapse</I> any better?<BR/><BR/>I don't want to read another 100 pages about the distribution of corn seeds again....zzzzzzz.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154573225246774872006-08-02T19:47:00.000-07:002006-08-02T19:47:00.000-07:00"Was anyone opposed to saving the ozone layer?"Sor..."Was anyone opposed to saving the ozone layer?"<BR/><BR/>Sort of.<BR/><BR/>There are a lot of folks who think that there never was a threat to the ozone.<BR/><BR/>This crowd believes that the switch from Freon to (substitute) was either 1) an overreaction by enviro-nazis, or 2) a ploy by the refrigerant industry to force everyone to buy the pricier substitute.<BR/><BR/>You could google around and probably find all sorts of conspiracy pages on the subject.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154569178730985902006-08-02T18:39:00.000-07:002006-08-02T18:39:00.000-07:00Whatever your politicalpersuasion, you need to buy...Whatever your politicalpersuasion, you need to buy and read Jared Diamond's COLLAPSE. No one is a world citizen without it.<BR/><BR/>Having said that, I do consider him to be a prime example of the Cotton Mather syndrome... the new prune-faced puritanism of the intellectual liberal movement. The Paul Ehrlich prim conservatism (as opposed to libertine neocons) advising us to save every penny and sit and shiver in the dark.<BR/><BR/>The only success stories Diamond cites are Tikopia and Tokuygawa Japan and a few others that laid down DRACONIAN sustainability rules that were also rules to benefit the ruling class. There has got to be a better way to save the world.<BR/><BR/>Genuine liberalism... neither libertine nor nostalgic... could do it. If we quadrupled research and dedicated ourselves to a scientific civilization.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154566895565268672006-08-02T18:01:00.000-07:002006-08-02T18:01:00.000-07:00They could be controlled by Sauds, or it could be,...They could be controlled by Sauds, or it could be, as suggested on the last thread, that they simply don't believe in a non-zero-sum world so they assume that anything harmful or destructive they do will necessarily help them in some unexplained manner. <BR/>I assume that this is the sort of thinking that lead earlier societies to perform human sacrifice.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1154565598607141372006-08-02T17:39:00.000-07:002006-08-02T17:39:00.000-07:00More concern about it acidifying so much that the ...<I>More concern about it acidifying so much that the micro-flora/fauna may be faced with large-scale changes in where they can/can't survive.</I><BR/><BR/>That's what I remember hearing speculation about. More red tides and poisonous bacteria due to chemical changes in the ocean, both industrial toxins and simple carbolic acid. The die-off of reef ecosystems globally is already pretty well-documented.<BR/><BR/>What isn't well-publicized is population shifts due to bad management, e.g. overfishing. In many parts of the world, fish stocks are being ecologically replaced with "trash species" like jellyfish. These consume the resources that the fish you actually want would, hindering your fish stocks' return to a viable population.<BR/><BR/>Combine that with changes in the ocean's currents and things do begin to look a little scary. The ocean has more to do with the planet's long-term health than the land, most specifically the top 100 feet... a thin skin that isn't so massive that we couldn't destroy it piecemeal if we put a little effort into it.<BR/><BR/>And yes, stefan, your cynicism seems warranted to me. But then, I've said before, "something isn't a problem until the boss has a problem," and words to the effect that we were all doomed because the world is currently run by pointy-haired weasels. (And also that I have no objection to California sinking into the sea, but that's an entirely different topic.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com