tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post112956245966595153..comments2024-03-27T23:12:08.917-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Contemplating Civilization: its rise, fall, rebuilding... and futureDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger63125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-81539003755149146672012-03-19T14:05:14.619-07:002012-03-19T14:05:14.619-07:00onward!onward!David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-82791715572695534572012-03-19T08:40:28.500-07:002012-03-19T08:40:28.500-07:00Sounds like your idea about oligarchy. According ...Sounds like your idea about oligarchy. According to a new book by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson entitled "Why Nations Fail," they argue "the wealth of a country is most closely correlated with the degree to which the average person shares in the overall growth of its economy."<br /><br />"In parts of modern sub-Saharan Africa, as was true in medieval Europe or the antebellum South, the people who work the fields lack any incentive to improve their yield because any surplus is taken by the wealthy elite. This mind-set changes only when farmers are given strong property rights and discover that they can profit from extra production. In 1978, China began allowing farmers to benefit from any surplus they produced. The decision, most economists agree, helped spark the country’s astounding growth."<br /><br />See http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/18/magazine/why-countries-go-bust.html?_r=2&ref=magazine<br /><br />I think you can add this to your successful predictions log. :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-68161806467898266062012-03-19T05:21:51.949-07:002012-03-19T05:21:51.949-07:00Dr Brin:
For about 25 years, the 3rd movie in EVE...Dr Brin:<br /><i><br />For about 25 years, the 3rd movie in EVERY series always betrayed the wonderful 2nd movie in the series. Trek, Star Wars, Aliens, Terminator, you name it.<br /></i><br /><br />The definitive example (and perhaps the first one) was Superman III.LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-28390277663996188052012-03-18T22:35:06.288-07:002012-03-18T22:35:06.288-07:00Hypnos,
Re:No nukes
"We are burdening the fut...Hypnos,<br />Re:No nukes<br /><i>"We are burdening the future with hundreds of tons of poison that neither we nor they will have any idea what to do with."</i><br /><br />Of course all other forms of power generation produce much larger amounts of waste, and cost vastly more lives. (Even solar panels cost more lives of installers per-kWH than nuclear power.)<br /><br />My problem with nuclear power is the industry itself, (and its advocates.) They seem to do such stupid things, then blink in surprise when it bites them in the ass.<br /><br />For example, locally (Australia) the conservative party was in power for over a decade, during which their well-known climate-deniers floated the idea of nuclear power for Australia as a wedge issue against the greens whenever climate-change got political traction. But they never did anything to prepare Australia for the requirements of building a dozen reactors across the country; training a new generation of nuclear researchers, physicists, engineers, etc, funding scholarships with top foreign nuclear research institutions, etc. Even when a decision was forced onto them, replacing an existing open-pool research reactor, they chose the least option they could, to outsource design, construction and initial operation to an Argentinian company. (Similarly, in debates, they would invoke the theoretical safety of next-gen pebble-bed reactors, the waste-burning of next-next-gen Thorium reactors, then invoke the price of the cheapest third gen PWRs). How would anyone in Australia ever trust any nuclear advocate?<br /><br />(Likewise, the whole, global industry playing games with nuclear weapons developers, sanction busting, dual-use enrichment technology, then playing hurt-innocent when greens equate nuclear power and nuclear weapons proliferation. And Sweden's the only nation I've ever seen treat nuclear waste properly, without creating a sense they were doing the minimum necessary to pretend they were doing enough.)<br /><br />(Similar story with GM food industry.)Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-44638676948248107652012-03-18T22:28:57.728-07:002012-03-18T22:28:57.728-07:00Jumper,
"With stock held 22 seconds, what is ...Jumper,<br /><i>"With stock held 22 seconds, what is a company supposed to do to work in concordance with the shareholder's interests? There may be no answer to that question..."</i><br /><br />Micro-trading preys on slight variations in price, so if most "shareholders" are micro-trading algorhythms, then what's in their interest is extreme price volatility with no connection to the underlying value or performance of the company<br /><br /><i>"I often ponder why Harley Davidson has not entered the mini-car business."</i><br /><br />In spite of appearances, motorcycle engines are not that efficient. They are optimised for power. Especially status symbols like Hogs.Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-21650028760843722162012-03-18T22:08:34.632-07:002012-03-18T22:08:34.632-07:00Matthew, Aliens3 was probably the worst betrayal o...Matthew, Aliens3 was probably the worst betrayal of faith with the viewer in the history of cinema. For about 25 years, the 3rd movie in EVERY series always betrayed the wonderful 2nd movie in the series. Trek, Star Wars, Aliens, Terminator, you name it. A curse. <br /><br />But Aliens3 deserves a special place in hell. I proposed Aliens 4 should have started with Ripley waking up! Because A3 is exactly the sort of nightmare she would have had.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-44892455258967981922012-03-18T20:19:28.481-07:002012-03-18T20:19:28.481-07:00Alien 3 gets a thumbs-down for killing Newt off sc...Alien 3 gets a thumbs-down for killing Newt off screen. Unforgivable.<br /><br />There are problems with WIPP (improperly mapped aquifer, anyone) but you won't hear of the problems from the residents of Carlsbad, NM. As a graduate of Carlsbad High School I can guarantee that scientific curiosity is not valued in the area. But BC is right, Carlsbad is a nice place to live. And the residents really do want nuke waste. I always thought,"What the heck. Ship it to them." It's not like anyone would miss Artesia or Hobbs, either. Hopefully Texas will drain the Artesian aquifer before the waste migrates into it. On second thought, nuclear waste in the water would improve the quality of water in the Odessa-Perriman basin. Worst-tasting water in the US. ;P<br />Seriously, nuke is the only path forward that doesn't bake the planet within a hundred years. And C carlsbad wants to be the waste repository. Ship it, my friends. Ship it.matthewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17757867868731829206noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-19770549485596130002012-03-18T18:59:12.885-07:002012-03-18T18:59:12.885-07:00And in the the background, the infrastructure chug...And in the the background, the infrastructure chugs on...<br /><br />Synroc was first developed to store radioactive waste about thirty years ago. I note it is still being refined and tailored for various needs (<a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf58.html" rel="nofollow">Plutonium being the latest addition</a>)<br /><br />My Masters thesis provided a small contribution: using X-ray fluorescence to show that Cesium was retained in the structure.<br /><br />Aliens: it was that eerie music blowing past extraterrestrial rock formations.<br /><br />(Alien 3 I didn't actually mind... as a stand-alone movie.)Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-48232353087624781362012-03-18T17:32:41.736-07:002012-03-18T17:32:41.736-07:00Tacitus2:
Aliens is still the only movie that eve...Tacitus2:<br /><i><br />Aliens is still the only movie that every had me scared in the opening credits!<br /></i><br /><br />Not exactly the same subject, but the original "Raiders of the Lost Ark" was the only movie that ever had me literally on the edge of my seat with excitement from start to finish. I never before knew that watching a movie could require that much energy. And the experience has never been repeated since, more's the pity.LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-40581948762544100312012-03-18T15:08:01.545-07:002012-03-18T15:08:01.545-07:00The buildup of spent nuclear fuel is like mildew i...The buildup of spent nuclear fuel is like mildew in your bathroom, unpleasant and a long term problem. Unmitigated carbon emissions are like a grease fire in your kitchen. If we don't address carbon emissions within the next few decades, the house (our planet) will burn down. Spent nuclear fuel management needs to be dealt with, but we've got a very, very long time before it is a serious issue relative to the rest of the problems we have. All things being equal, we should not push the buck on, but we have far more serious problems right now. If generating more spent nuclear fuel is what it takes to avert imminent disaster, I'm all for it.<br /><br />As Dr. Brin said, the stuff really is a treasure containing at about 50-100 times more energy than we had got from it. Right now, our access to cheap uranium (and thorium) removes the motivation to chemically separate the stuff -- it's not a pipe dream, as you claim. It's far more economical today to dig new uranium out of the ground and store the old stuff. When the supply curve changes, we'll be set for a very long time.<br /><br />As far as no solution, I beg to differ. Carlsbad, New Mexico (a nice place if you've never been) in the US currently handles defense nuclear waste (WIPP), and is pushing very hard to be able to take care of the US commercial spent nuclear fuel as well. Right now, WIPP is hurting no one or the environment, but it is providing good jobs for a lot of people. When we chemically separate the stuff, we will have a place to put the remaining fission products -- the actual waste, which stabilize on the order of decades or centuries, as opposed to the useful actinide fuel, which requires tens of thousands of years to stabilize.BCRionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04955960949670858365noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-80871138358015433632012-03-18T12:56:56.284-07:002012-03-18T12:56:56.284-07:00Hypnos, the byproducts you call "waste" ...Hypnos, the byproducts you call "waste" may be "golden treasure" to future generations. We should open Ycca Mountain and store it there like in bank vaults.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-28698021406655410942012-03-18T11:55:57.335-07:002012-03-18T11:55:57.335-07:00Contemplating the fall of civilizations....
New t...Contemplating the fall of civilizations....<br /><br />New trailer for Prometheus out today. Having been burned so many times by noble franchises screwing up on prequels/sequels and reboots I am pretty jaded.<br /><br />But other than the apparent presence of a Plucky Gal Archeologist stock figure I gotta say.....looks very, very creepy.<br /><br />Which is what you want.<br /><br />Aliens is still the only movie that every had me scared in the opening credits!<br /><br />TacitusTacitushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17007086196578740689noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-65892493303031540822012-03-18T10:45:21.029-07:002012-03-18T10:45:21.029-07:00Hypnos,
Not sure how the UK works, but here in th...Hypnos,<br /><br />Not sure how the UK works, but here in the US, there is a fund paid for by the utilities to pay for decommissioning costs. It is currently sitting idle in the US treasury, because the US government has decided that it, not the utilities, will be responsible for spent nuclear fuel. Either way, it is a paid for cost in the US.<br /><br />Let's shift a little bit to fossil fuel emissions. The environmental and health impacts of releasing various toxins (sulfur dioxides, mercury, etc.), only partially mitigated, into the atmosphere are well documented. The incremental environmental damage from atmospheric carbon alone is going to be catastrophic and well into the many trillions of USD. This number pales in comparison with any cost or hypothetical damage spent nuclear fuel could do, being a compact solid in vastly lower mass per unit energy than fossil emissions.<br /><br />That said, with your stated position on nuclear, how do you rationalize any fossil fuel burning if we do not contain and safely dispose of all of our emissions?BCRionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04955960949670858365noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-11178229633755317122012-03-18T08:19:56.298-07:002012-03-18T08:19:56.298-07:00Hi David,
I think the best way to get more explan...Hi David,<br /><br />I think the best way to get more explanations from the humanities is to increase the data points - to have a large number of self selected communities try out various ways of living. Somewhat mentioned in your essay on seasteading.Prakashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10227431671018440503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-86264056166690955602012-03-18T07:42:10.538-07:002012-03-18T07:42:10.538-07:00With stock held 22 seconds, what is a company supp...With stock held 22 seconds, what is a company supposed to do to work in concordance with the shareholder's interests? There may be no answer to that question...<br /><br />I wonder if one can make gasoline with coal and methane? That is, competitively. I suspect so. I think the oxygen crack (the old "water gas") is wasteful, so a direct, catalytic process would be needed.<br /><br />I often ponder why Harley Davidson has not entered the mini-car business. They have the parts and supply chains. And I wonder if a standard Harley could be fitted with a catalytic converter that would A. not burn the bejeezus out of one's leg and B. still enable the bike to get good mileage while retaining decent power. It would be pretty much a theoretical experiment given the need to abandon CO2 producers.<br /><br />Also I have been tracking down what exactly the (Pickens cheerled) proposals for "natural gas" vehicles are, and find they mean basically propane (some butane is mixed in, apparently, in hot weather.) A bit more carbon than I had hoped for.Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-66827167013102323032012-03-18T04:45:59.920-07:002012-03-18T04:45:59.920-07:00Current nuclear overnight costs - which are alread...Current nuclear overnight costs - which are already way too high to compete with much of anything - do not include the cost of decommissioning, because it is discounted away (at 10%/year).<br /><br />I'm not sure how the UK calculated the costs of the decommissioning of its nascent nuclear fleet in 1952. If it had discounted it as it is doing now with the new build, such costs would have been equivalent to zero.<br /><br />Current estimates place them at upwards of £100billion, and that's assuming they find a workable disposal strategy, which so far they haven't.<br /><br />We are burdening the future with hundreds of tons of poison that neither we nor they will have any idea what to do with.<br /><br />No new nuclear power plant should go ahead until the waste problem has been solved - with current technology, not with pipe dreams that haven't been viable for the past 50 years and probably never will.Hypnoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01409179274970587232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-8988148958328132192012-03-17T16:21:36.711-07:002012-03-17T16:21:36.711-07:00the Darwin of Einstein
Now *there's* a typo-i...<i>the Darwin of Einstein</i><br /><br />Now *there's* a typo-inspired thought!<br /><br />Carbon tax viabilities vs oil/coal (if i recall BZE stats)<br />Gas $30-40/tonne (benefit is dubious)<br />Solar $60-70?<br />Wind $80-100<br />Nuclear $200<br /><br />Just installed a solar hot water system for $5000. Rough est. for 4kw panels was about 15000. May wait for a reliable income before revisiting that. Useful to know what could be done though.<br /><br />Otherwise, it's amazing how far you can go on a bicycle!Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-78737505333275277632012-03-17T14:23:41.439-07:002012-03-17T14:23:41.439-07:00Your TV show idea would get real interesting when ...Your TV show idea would get real interesting when new groups start to develop religions and drugs. The drugs would be pretty straightforward, alcohol is alcohol, but the potential religions could be really unique.SFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08645041722235649719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-51714845377770024212012-03-17T13:39:03.090-07:002012-03-17T13:39:03.090-07:00Flavorday you misconstrue. I spend a lot of my ti...Flavorday you misconstrue. I spend a lot of my time immersed in "social science" stuff. In a sense, the thought experiments of science fiction might be considered laboratory Sco-Sci work.<br /><br />But come on. Scoial science has yet to even have its Newton, let alone Darwin of Einstein. It is still where physical science was in the days of alchemy, collecting correlations and some interesting relationships... but all-too easily diverted down paths of group-think, platitudes and vagueness.<br /><br />I have published papers in psychological and anthropological journals. I was managing editor of the journal of the laboratory for human cognition at UCSD. I have spent time in that world. We know a lot! But we do not know how to test and organize what we know and use it in systematic ways.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-85566625182846984842012-03-17T11:26:48.888-07:002012-03-17T11:26:48.888-07:00You don't like--or, at any rate, respect--the ...You don't like--or, at any rate, respect--the humanities and/or the social sciences, Mr. Brin? Where do you think people like Ferguson and Wright come from? It's tempting to attempt, at least, to read your endorsement of Ferguson's comments as distantly related to the interdisciplinary rivalries/jeaousies/resentments which one might suspect lurk behind Gregory Benford's delusons of Faulknerhood (SF vs. "real," capital-L "Litrachure"),not to mnetion perhaps Ferguson's own semingly unintetonal self-deprecton(where does HE thinkpeople like him come from?), but ...FlavorDavhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12951306002609541273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-32054014368182380752012-03-17T10:30:51.032-07:002012-03-17T10:30:51.032-07:00Ian,
"So why aren't the Russians, French...Ian,<br /><br />"So why aren't the Russians, French, Indians, Chinese or Koreans usign the technology?"<br /><br />Partially because light-water reactors work well enough. While I do think the technologies are viable, there is still a lot of hard-earned operating experience to be gained with them. It took a couple decades before we really understood how to operate the LWR.<br /><br />But really to the bigger picture about all nuclear technology, the people who build reactors are multi-national companies, not nation states these days. No major global economy really assesses the externality cost of carbon emissions, but still requires management of radioactive waste (a good thing!). Since companies do not bare any of the cost for their emissions in every major market, it is cheaper to sell fossil fuels.<br /><br />When it comes to licensing, the US NRC is the de facto regulator of the world. Equivalent bodies are largely patterned off the US agency, and this is mostly a good thing in terms of safety. The people in the industry state that the US NRC is the "gold standard" in regulation, and any design not having a license from them would be seriously challenged. That said, China might be a bit more flexible (for better or worse), and that is why Bill Gate's people are looking to build there first.<br /><br />The real problem I see is a lack of diversity in the nuclear enterprise. Much like evolution, a lack of diversity means a difficulty in adaptation. Everything is so homogenous now, and new ideas beyond incremental changes are either discouraged or considered "pie in the sky" -- at least my impression when I attend those meetings. For any number of reasons, there is no political will to change that. As a result, there is no economic incentive to do that privately either: all companies (save AREVA, which is having its own problems right now) that deal in nuclear have larger fossil fuel interests, and they're not going to sabotage those considering they work quite well.BCRionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04955960949670858365noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-13517893377454720542012-03-17T05:38:18.803-07:002012-03-17T05:38:18.803-07:00Your comment about transfer of wealth is great. J...Your comment about transfer of wealth is great. Just saw a piece on the PBS "Making Sense" section about a new novel on stock trading. With the computers now the average time a stock is held today is 22 seconds. It's a different world.Craig Commentshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06484538529552376060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-81903405431668427462012-03-16T23:52:52.120-07:002012-03-16T23:52:52.120-07:00Apologies for all the typoes in my last few posts....Apologies for all the typoes in my last few posts.<br /><br />A quick question for the nuclear enthusiasts, I know a couple of people here have asserted that the only thing holding back fast breeder reactors is opposition from green groups and the technology is all set to roll.<br /><br />So why aren't the Russians, French, Indians, Chinese or Koreans usign the technology?Ianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01739671401151990700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-2209559053045033812012-03-16T22:48:38.656-07:002012-03-16T22:48:38.656-07:00Jane you are welcome here! We have a lively and i...Jane you are welcome here! We have a lively and interesting community. One of the smartest on the web.<br /><br />As one who "channeled" the great psychohistorian Hari Seldon, I can say that I would love to see the social sciences get better. Perhaps they will.<br /><br />Rewinn, we are taking bids on both roof photovoltaic and pool solar right now. The deals for "prepaid lease" seem very good. The company takes the capital depreciation and the federal credit and uses both to drive down the total. At the end of 20 years will they come and take the cells away? I doubt it.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1097406782870927592012-03-16T22:21:36.432-07:002012-03-16T22:21:36.432-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Jane Shevtsovhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13689631181076302842noreply@blogger.com